Market Overview for Threshold/USDC (TUSDC) on 2025-12-16

Summary
• TUSDC formed bearish engulfing patterns and saw key support tested at 0.00938.
• Volume spiked to 810,703 at 05:00 ET but failed to trigger a rally.
• RSI remains below 30, indicating oversold conditions, while volatility has stabilized.
• Price has been consolidating within a narrowing Bollinger Band range since midday.

Threshold/USDC opened at 0.00973 (12:00 ET − 1), peaked at 0.00973, and hit a low of 0.00933 before closing at 0.00938 at 12:00 ET. Total volume reached 810,703, with notional turnover rising significantly due to high-volume consolidation around 0.00938.

Structure & Formations

A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 17:00 ET as price dropped from 0.00973 to 0.00951. Later, a second bearish signal appeared at 20:45 ET with a decline from 0.00944 to 0.00933. Price has since found a key support level at 0.00938, which has been tested multiple times and has held as a short-term floor.

Moving Averages and Momentum

The 5-minute 20-period and 50-period moving averages have remained bearish for much of the session, reflecting sustained downward pressure.

RSI has lingered below 30 for several hours, signaling oversold conditions, though divergence in price and RSI is not yet evident. MACD remained negative, but the histogram has flattened, suggesting a potential pause in the bearish trend.

Volatility and Bollinger Bands

Volatility has compressed as price consolidated within a narrowing Bollinger Band range during the overnight session. A contraction phase appears to have formed between 03:00 and 05:00 ET, followed by a minor test of the upper band at 0.00944. The recent lack of price expansion suggests that a breakout or breakdown may be imminent, though direction remains uncertain.

Volume and Turnover

The highest volume spike occurred at 05:00 ET (810,703), coinciding with a close at 0.00938. However, the price failed to break above the 0.00941 level, resulting in a false breakout attempt. Lower turnover after this point has reinforced consolidation around the key support level.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent 5-minute swing from 0.00973 to 0.00933, price has stalled near the 61.8% retracement level at approximately 0.00948. A break below 0.00938 (38.2% level) could trigger deeper consolidation or a short-term reversal.

Threshold/USDC may find its next direction based on whether 0.00938 continues to hold as a floor or if volume builds on a breakout. Investors should monitor RSI for signs of momentum reversal and watch for expansion in Bollinger Bands as a potential setup for a move.