Market Overview for Threshold/USDC (TUSDC) on 2025-10-25

• Threshold/USDC (TUSDC) traded in a narrow range today, consolidating near 0.0128 with minimal price deviation.
• A sharp volume spike in the early morning ET preceded a minor breakout attempt, but the pair failed to sustain gains.
• RSI and MACD remained neutral, suggesting low conviction in directional movement.
• Bollinger Bands showed no significant contraction or expansion, indicating low volatility expectations.
• No strong candlestick patterns emerged, with indecision dominating the session thus far.

Threshold/USDC (TUSDC) opened at 0.01266 at 12:00 ET–1 and closed at 0.01287 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour range was 0.01266 to 0.01287, with a closing price of 0.01287 reflecting a modest gain. The total traded volume during the period was 33,951.5 USDC, with a notional turnover of approximately $433.60, calculated using the average price. Price action has been largely sideways, with buyers and sellers showing equal dominance.

Structure & Formations

The price action displayed a lack of strong directional bias, with several candles forming at or near the same price level (0.01281–0.01287), suggesting a potential equilibrium between buyers and sellers. No definitive candlestick patterns such as Dojis, Engulfing, or Hammers emerged to signal a reversal or continuation. The price may be consolidating ahead of a breakout, but no immediate signs of bullish or bearish conviction have appeared.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were closely aligned near 0.01281–0.01283, indicating a flat trend. The 50-period line remained slightly above the 20-period line, suggesting a neutral stance. Daily moving averages (50/100/200) were not significantly displaced and showed little movement, reinforcing the idea of a consolidation phase.

MACD & RSI

MACD remained in a neutral zone, with the histogram fluctuating around zero. This points to low momentum and no clear trend. RSI hovered around 50, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions. The pair lacks conviction in either direction, and both indicators suggest that any breakout in the next 24 hours would need a fresh catalyst to gain traction.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands remained relatively wide, with the price hovering close to the mid-band for much of the session. No significant contraction was observed, which might suggest that volatility was expected and priced in. The price tested the upper band briefly in the afternoon but failed to break through, indicating resistance in the 0.01286–0.01287 range.

Volume & Turnover

The 24-hour volume profile revealed intermittent spikes in trading activity, particularly around 02:00 and 05:45 ET, when buying pressure briefly pushed the price higher. However, these surges failed to produce lasting gains, and the price reverted to its consolidation range. Notional turnover mirrored the volume pattern, with the largest notional trade occurring around 02:00 ET when 2825.2 USDC was traded at 0.01283. There was no divergence between price and volume, suggesting that the market remained in balance.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent 15-minute swing from 0.01266 to 0.01287, the 38.2% and 61.8% retracement levels aligned with the mid-range at 0.01274–0.01281. These levels have acted as key support and resistance points throughout the session. For the daily chart, the 0.01281 level appears to be a critical 38.2% retracement, suggesting that a break above this level could signal renewed bullish momentum.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current price action and lack of strong momentum indicators, a backtest of the Bullish Engulfing pattern would be valuable in understanding how TUSDC has historically responded to such formations. While no engulfing patterns were identified in today's data, the strategy could be tested over a broader historical window using the correct ticker symbol or an alternative liquid asset like BTC/USDT. A 5-day-hold strategy post-engulfing could help assess the pair's tendency to follow through with bullish continuation or fade. Identifying the correct symbol or confirming the data source is crucial to ensure the backtest is both accurate and actionable.