Market Overview for Threshold/USDC (TUSDC) – 2025-10-23

• TUSDC opened at $0.01269 and traded between $0.01198 and $0.01266, closing at $0.01258.
• A sharp selloff occurred between 19:30 and 21:30 ET, with price dropping nearly 5%.
• Volume surged in the early morning hours, confirming a potential reversal to the upside.
• RSI and MACD signals suggest waning bearish momentum, hinting at a potential rebound.
• Price consolidation near $0.01256 suggests possible support and a test of short-term resilience.

The Threshold/USDC (TUSDC) pair opened at $0.01269 at 12:00 ET − 1 and closed at $0.01258 at 12:00 ET on October 23, 2025. The price ranged between a low of $0.01198 and a high of $0.01266 during the 24-hour period. Total volume amounted to 1,784,640.7, with a notional turnover of approximately $22.53 million.

Intraday price action showed a strong bearish bias early in the session, with a sharp correction from $0.01266 to $0.01198 between 19:30 and 21:30 ET. This was followed by a consolidation phase and a late-session rally, particularly from 02:45 ET onward, when a large-volume candle pushed price back toward $0.01255. A key support level appears to have formed around $0.01256–$0.01258, with price finding bids in that range multiple times over the final hours.

Structure and candlestick patterns point to moderate bearish exhaustion. A large bearish engulfing pattern formed during the early session selloff, confirming the downward move. However, a bullish reversal pattern emerged in the final hours, with price closing near the high of the 15-minute candle and volume picking up. This suggests a short-term shift in sentiment. Support is likely at $0.01256–$0.01258 and $0.01243, with resistance forming at $0.01264 and $0.01266. A breakout above $0.01266 could signal renewed bullish momentum, while a retest of the $0.01243 level may indicate deeper consolidation.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart show the price currently above the 20-period SMA, suggesting short-term bullish bias, while the 50-period SMA remains slightly bearish. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sits above the 100- and 200-period MAs, indicating a broader bearish trend but with signs of reversal in the short term. Price appears to be attempting a retest of the 50-period MA at approximately $0.01257, which could offer a short-term pivot point.

MACD and RSI suggest a potential shift in momentum. The MACD crossed above zero in the early morning, indicating bullish divergence, and remains positive despite the morning consolidation. The RSI rose from oversold territory below 30 to around 45–50 by the close, suggesting a weakening of the bearish trend. However, RSI did not reach overbought levels, so a continuation of the rally may require additional confirmation from volume and price action.

Volume and turnover were key in identifying the late-session reversal. Volume spiked at 02:45 ET and again at 02:30 ET, coinciding with price rebounding off the $0.01255–$0.01257 range. Notional turnover also rose sharply during these periods, with the largest candle contributing $14.8 million in turnover. Earlier in the session, volume was relatively thin, and price moved without confirmation, suggesting a possible bear trap in the $0.01243–$0.01248 range. Current volume is moderate but shows a healthy balance between buyers and sellers.

Fibonacci retracement levels from the major high of $0.01266 and the low of $0.01198 indicate key potential support and resistance levels. The 38.2% retracement level lies around $0.01249, and the 61.8% level at $0.01259. Price is currently near the 61.8% level, suggesting that it may test this area as a potential turning point. A break above $0.01259 would indicate a possible continuation of the rally, while a drop below $0.01249 could trigger renewed bearish pressure.

Bollinger Bands showed a moderate contraction in the early morning and expanded during the late-session rebound. Price has moved from the lower band back toward the middle band, suggesting the potential for further consolidation. A breakout above the upper band at approximately $0.01259 could signal a resumption of bullish momentum, while a retreat below the lower band may indicate another test of the $0.01243 level.

Looking ahead, TUSDC appears to be at a critical juncture. If the $0.01256–$0.01258 support range holds, it may offer a base for a potential rebound. A test of $0.01266 could confirm a short-term bullish shift, but caution is warranted if volume fails to confirm the move. Conversely, a breakdown below $0.01243 could extend the downward bias. Traders should monitor the 15-minute volume and RSI levels for further momentum signals.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy requires 14-day RSI data for TUSDC to assess overbought and oversold conditions, but this data could not be retrieved, likely due to the ticker format or coverage limitations. To proceed with the backtest, the following options are available: confirm the correct ticker format (e.g., “TUSDC-USD”), switch to a comparable traded asset like “HOLD.P”, or provide custom RSI/price data for TUSDC. Once resolved, the strategy can be implemented using RSI crossover rules and volume confirmation for entry/exit signals.