Market Overview: Threshold/USDC (TUSDC) – 2025-10-14 24-Hour Analysis

• Threshold/USDC declined by ~6.2% over the 24-hour period amid elevated volume near the session low.
• A bearish reversal pattern emerged after a sharp rally, suggesting a potential shift in momentum.
• Volatility expanded in the afternoon before contracting near the 24-hour close, indicating consolidation.
• RSI fell into oversold territory near 29, hinting at a short-term potential rebound or further bearish consolidation.
• Key support now sits at $0.01293, with resistance at $0.01323, following recent 15-minute swings.

Threshold/USDC (TUSDC) opened at $0.01344 on 2025-10-13 12:00 ET and closed at $0.01287 on 2025-10-14 12:00 ET, with a high of $0.01383 and a low of $0.0126. Total volume for the 24-hour window was 1,005,447.9 TUSDC, while notional turnover amounted to approximately $13,471 (0.01287 * volume). The price action reflected a strong bearish trend with notable volume spikes.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour OHLCV data revealed a bearish engulfing pattern in the early afternoon, with a candle opening at $0.01386 and closing at $0.01371 amid high volume. This was followed by a bearish continuation with a bearish flag forming between $0.01336 and $0.01287. Key support levels emerged at $0.01293 and $0.0126, while resistance held near $0.01336 and $0.01359. A doji appeared near $0.0126, signaling indecision and potential exhaustion.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed bearishly, confirming a downtrend. For the daily chart, the 50-period MA moved below both the 100-period and 200-period MAs, reinforcing the bearish bias. This crossover suggests continued selling pressure in the near term, with price likely to remain below the 50-period MA for the next 24 hours.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram contracted significantly after a morning sell-off, indicating a slowdown in bearish momentum. RSI dipped below 30 and lingered in oversold territory, suggesting a potential short-term bounce or a reversal could be in the cards. However, the bearish divergence in MACD and a weak RSI recovery imply that a sustained rally is unlikely without a strong volume trigger.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded in the afternoon hours, with the price reaching the upper band at $0.01383 before falling back below the 20-period moving average. As the session progressed, volatility compressed again, with the price hovering near the lower band for the last few hours. This contraction may foreshadow a breakout or continuation of the current bearish trend.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged in the early afternoon with a 15-minute candle showing over 149,440.5 TUSDC traded at $0.01383, confirming a bearish breakout. However, turnover dropped significantly after that, indicating a lack of follow-through. Divergence between volume and price emerged in the evening, with price continuing to fall while volume waned, suggesting weakening conviction in the downtrend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 15-minute swing high at $0.01383 and low at $0.0126, the 38.2% retrace level sits at $0.01325 and the 61.8% level at $0.01303. The price is currently near the 61.8% level at $0.01287, suggesting a potential bounce back toward $0.01303 or a further test of $0.0126. On the daily chart, the 61.8% level is near $0.0126, which could be a critical area to watch.

Backtest Hypothesis

To backtest the bearish engulfing pattern with high volume, two key parameters are required: the exact ticker symbol for TUSDC and a clear definition of “high volume.” The ticker symbol must align with the data source to ensure accurate historical data retrieval. Furthermore, defining high volume using a method such as the top 20% of the past 30 days or the 30-day moving average will help standardize the backtest. These confirmations will allow for the accurate identification of trade signals and the evaluation of their profitability from 1 Jan 2022 to today.