Market Overview: Threshold/USDC (TUSDC) on 2025-10-11

• Price fell sharply after 19:30 ET on 2025-10-10, dropping from ~0.0145 to below 0.01239.
• Volatility surged with a 9.3% decline and over 10 million USDC in turnover during the flash selloff.
• Price has since recovered partially, retracing to 0.01224 by 12:00 ET, with moderate momentum and no overbought/oversold extremes.
• Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the selloff, then narrowed as price consolidated.
• Key support at 0.0120–0.0122 and resistance at 0.0124–0.0126 are now focal for near-term direction.

Threshold/USDC (TUSDC) opened the 24-hour period on 2025-10-10 at 12:00 ET at 0.01482, reached a high of 0.01495, and a low of 0.01239 before closing at 0.01223 on 2025-10-11 at 12:00 ET. The total traded volume was 53,079,063.9 USDC, with a notional turnover of approximately 653,728 USDC.

Over the past 24 hours, TUSDC experienced a dramatic price correction, dropping nearly 9.3% following a massive sell-off between 19:30 and 20:30 ET, where volume spiked to over 12 million USDC. A large bearish engulfing pattern formed at that time, confirming a strong shift in sentiment. Following this, price found a short-term floor around 0.01216–0.01219 and has since moved in a tight consolidation range. A doji formed at 0.01223 on the last candle, signaling potential indecision.

Structure & Formations

The price action reveals key support levels at 0.01214–0.01217 and 0.01202–0.01205, which have withstood multiple tests. Resistance now lies between 0.01224 and 0.01228, where the market has struggled to break decisively. The bearish engulfing pattern at ~0.01239–0.01357 was one of the most significant formations, marking a shift in control from bullish to bearish momentum. A potential bullish reversal could emerge if the price closes above 0.01228 with high volume.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA both trended downward during the selloff, with the 20SMA crossing below the 50SMA into bearish territory. On the daily chart, the 50DMA and 100DMA also crossed below, confirming the bearish shift. However, the 20SMA has begun to flatten, which may indicate early signs of stabilization. A bullish crossover back above the 50SMA could signal a reversal, though it is not yet in sight.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line dropped sharply during the selloff, with a bearish crossover below the signal line. Negative momentum continued until the last few hours, when the histogram began to shrink, indicating waning bearish pressure. RSI bottomed near 25, suggesting oversold conditions, but has yet to show a convincing bullish divergence. Momentum appears to be stabilizing but remains weak for a strong reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the selloff, with price dropping below the lower band. Since then, the bands have begun to contract, and price has remained within a narrowing range between 0.01216 and 0.01226. This consolidation suggests a potential breakout could occur soon, with the direction likely to be dictated by volume and order flow.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the selloff, with the largest 15-minute bar reaching 4.75 million USDC. Notional turnover spiked to 57,824 USDC during that period, aligning with the bearish price action. In recent hours, volume has dropped to a more normalized range of 10k–30k USDC per 15-minute candle. This drop in volume suggests reduced conviction in the bearish move and could be a precursor to a reversal, provided the price breaks out of the current range with confirmation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent 0.01495–0.01239 swing, key retracement levels are at 0.01365 (38.2%), 0.01317 (50%), and 0.01269 (61.8%). The price has stalled near the 61.8% retracement at 0.01216–0.01219, which could either serve as a temporary floor or a signal for further consolidation. A break above 0.01228 would align with the 61.8% level, potentially validating a short-term bullish trend.

Backtest Hypothesis

Based on the observed patterns and metrics, a potential backtesting strategy could involve a long entry upon a bullish breakout above 0.01228, confirmed by a close above this level and a corresponding increase in volume. A stop-loss could be placed just below the immediate support at 0.01214, with a target set at the next key resistance at 0.01234–0.01246. This setup would aim to capture a potential rally off the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, with risk management focused on containing losses if the price resumes its decline.