Market Overview for Threshold/USDC (TUSDC) on 2025-10-03

• Threshold/USDC traded higher over the last 24 hours, forming a bullish breakout above key resistance.
• Volume surged in early NY hours, confirming the upward move, with a total turnover of $1.8M.
• RSI moved into overbought territory, suggesting potential near-term consolidation or profit-taking.
• Price remained within an ascending Bollinger Band channel, with volatility expanding during the rally.
• A large 15-minute bullish engulfing pattern formed at 16:30 ET, reinforcing the short-term bullish bias.

Threshold/USDC (TUSDC) opened at $0.0154 on 2025-10-02 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.01557 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET, gaining 0.98% over 24 hours. The pair reached a high of $0.01597 and a low of $0.0154, with a total volume of 409,650.1 and a turnover of $6,392,036. The move saw strong participation in the early trading hours, with a noticeable acceleration after 19:00 ET on the 2nd.

The 15-minute chart formed a bullish breakout pattern, with a key resistance at $0.0156 being decisively taken out. A large 15-minute bullish engulfing candle on 2025-10-02 at 16:30 ET signaled a shift in sentiment. The 50-period and 20-period moving averages are both sloping upwards, supporting the bullish momentum. Price action appears to have respect for the 50-period line, which is now acting as a dynamic support.

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The RSI reached 72 by the close, indicating overbought conditions, while MACD showed a positive divergence with a narrowing histogram. Bollinger Bands reflected increased volatility, with prices consistently trading near the upper band in the latter half of the 24-hour period. The 20-period upper band acted as a dynamic ceiling during the rally. Notably, the pair retraced to the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the previous bearish swing before resuming the upward move, suggesting strong support at $0.0156–$0.01565.

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Backtest Hypothesis
A potential trading strategy could involve entering long positions upon a confirmed close above the 50-period moving average, with a stop-loss placed below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. A take-profit target could be set at the next major resistance derived from prior swing highs or the upper Bollinger Band. This approach would aim to capture momentum during breakout phases while managing risk with defined stops. The volume confirmation during the breakout could further strengthen the strategy's signal.

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