Market Overview for Threshold/USDC (TUSDC) on 2025-09-14

• TUSDC saw a 0.00045 (2.7%) rise over the 24 hours, closing near intraday high.
• Momentum reversed sharply in early evening ET, with large-volume bullish continuation.
• Volatility increased significantly as price broke above prior Bollinger Band resistance.
• Volume spiked to $219,657 during a key 23:15–23:45 ET rally, suggesting strong institutional interest.
• RSI moved into overbought territory (70–75), raising potential short-term profit-taking risks.

Threshold/USDC (TUSDC) opened at $0.01687 on 2025-09-13 and rose to a high of $0.01730 by 00:00 ET on 2025-09-14, with a low of $0.01666 and a close of $0.01730 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour volume was 1,490,304.2 USDC, and total turnover (notional value) was approximately $25,149.

Structure & Formations

The price structure reveals a clear short-covering rally following a key breakdown attempt around 17:30–18:15 ET. A bullish reversal pattern formed at $0.01674–$0.01683 around 19:45–20:30 ET, followed by a powerful breakout above the descending wedge at 21:45–23:30 ET. The candle at 21:45 ET (time 2025-09-13 214500) is particularly noteworthy: it recorded a massive volume of 1,244,667.4 USDC and surged from $0.01687 to $0.01761, closing at $0.01705—showing aggressive buying pressure.

Candlestick Highlights

Key patterns include a bullish engulfing pattern at 19:45–20:00 ET, a strong continuation pattern at 21:45–23:45 ET, and a long white candle at 23:15–23:45 ET. A morning star-like formation is visible between 19:45 and 20:45 ET, suggesting a reversal after a short bearish phase. The doji at 23:30 ET indicates indecision at a critical level.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs crossed above the price in late evening ET, confirming a bullish bias. The 50 SMA at ~$0.0170–$0.0171 appears to act as a dynamic support line. Daily SMAs (50/100/200) suggest the pair is still above its 100 SMA, indicating a medium-term bullish setup.

MACD turned sharply bullish in the last 2.5 hours, with a positive divergence forming at 23:15–23:45 ET. RSI surged into overbought territory between 70–75 in the final 30 minutes, suggesting exhaustion of the rally and potential profit-taking.

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the 21:45–23:30 ET rally, with price closing just above the upper band at 00:00 ET. This suggests a breakout in progress.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the 21:45–23:30 ET rally, particularly at 21:45 ET, where 1.24 million USDC was traded. Notional value (turnover) during this period reached $219,657, confirming the volume's legitimacy and institutional involvement.

A divergence between price and volume is visible in the 17:30–19:00 ET timeframe, where volume increased but price moved lower—suggesting bearish exhaustion. However, the 21:45–00:00 ET rally showed strong volume confirmation, indicating a shift in sentiment.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 15-minute swing from 0.01666 (low) to 0.01761 (high) shows the current close of $0.01730 is near the 61.8% retracement level. Daily Fibonacci levels from a recent bear leg also show that $0.01730 is a key psychological and retracement level.

Threshold/USDC may consolidate within this range for the next 24–48 hours before attempting a move toward either the next Fibonacci extension level at $0.01760 or retesting the 61.8% level for a potential breakdown.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current setup—overbought RSI, bullish MACD divergence, and volume confirmation of a breakout—a potential backtest strategy would involve entering long positions on a close above $0.01730 with a stop-loss placed below the 21:45 ET candle’s low of $0.01705. Targets could include $0.01760 (61.8% extension) and $0.01780 (100% extension). The strategy would aim to capture short-to-medium term bullish momentum while managing risk on a pullback. This approach aligns with the observed structure and may be tested over multiple similar setups on a 15-minute or 1-hour chart.