Market Overview: Threshold/USDC on 2025-10-06

• Threshold/USDC traded in a tight range early before a sharp sell-off in the late ET session; 24-hour low of $0.01517 seen.
• Price closed at $0.01565 by 12:00 ET after a 0.38% rebound in morning trading; bears regained control after 6:00 PM ET.
• Notional turnover surged to $1.2B on 6:30 AM ET bullish reversal, while volume spiked at 09:30 AM ET.
• RSI entered oversold territory below 30 during the sell-off; MACD diverged as price dropped.
• Volatility expanded during the 22-hour drop, with Bollinger Bands widening significantly post 18:00 ET.

Threshold/USDC (TUSDC) opened at $0.01561 on 2025-10-05 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of $0.01569 before hitting a 24-hour low of $0.01517. The pair closed at $0.01565 at 12:00 ET on October 6. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 610,884.3, with a notional turnover of $9.39 million.

The price action displayed bearish dominance from 18:00 ET onward, marked by a sharp 0.46% decline in a single 15-minute candle (19:15–19:30 ET), where price fell from $0.01541 to $0.01528. A bearish engulfing pattern appeared on 19:30 ET, followed by a 0.618% bearish move by 20:00 ET. Support was tested at $0.01520 (38.2% Fibonacci level) before a temporary 0.38% bounce occurred around 02:00 ET.

Moving averages showed a bearish crossover on the 15-minute chart, with the 20-period line dipping below the 50-period line during the sell-off. On the daily chart, price remained above the 50-day MA but is approaching the 200-day MA, indicating a potential inflection point. The MACD line fell below the signal line during the 18:00–20:00 ET sell-off, while RSI bottomed at 28, signaling oversold conditions.

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the 18:00–21:00 ET decline, with price testing the lower band at $0.01520. Volatility remained elevated, with 15-minute volume spiking to over 80,000 on key bearish candles. Price appears to be consolidating near $0.01565–0.01570, where key Fibonacci retracements (61.8% of the 18:00–20:00 ET drop) could offer near-term resistance. A retest of $0.01520 is likely unless buyers step in near $0.01550–0.01560.

A bearish correction could continue in the short term unless bulls defend $0.01550. A break below $0.01530 may accelerate downside momentum, but a rebound above $0.01572 could signal a reversal. Investors should monitor volume and RSI divergence for confirmation.

Backtest Hypothesis

The strategy described involves entering a short position on TUSDC when the 15-minute 20-period moving average crosses below the 50-period MA (death cross) and RSI falls below 30, with a stop-loss placed above the recent swing high. A long position would trigger if RSI rises above 70 and the 20-period MA crosses back above the 50-period MA (golden cross), with a stop-loss placed below the recent swing low. Historical data shows that this strategy would have captured the 18:00–20:00 ET sell-off and would have exited the long position at the 02:00 ET bounce. Given the current setup, the next potential short entry could occur if RSI drops below 30 again while price remains below the 20-period MA.