Market Overview for Threshold/USD Coin (TUSDC): September 5, 2025

• Threshold/USD Coin (TUSDC) traded in a narrow range before surging near the 12:00 ET close.
• Strong bullish momentum emerged in the final 4 hours, with price climbing from 0.01576 to 0.01604.
• High volume activity confirmed the breakout, particularly between 04:15 ET and 05:30 ET.
• Volatility remained moderate throughout the day, with no extreme overbought or oversold RSI readings.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed near 08:00–09:00 ET, signaling possible follow-through buying.

Threshold/USD Coin (TUSDC) opened at 0.01565 at 12:00 ET-1 and closed at 0.01602 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 0.01619 and a low of 0.01555. Total volume over 24 hours was 667,441.2, with a notional turnover of $10,791.87. Price action showed a bullish reversal in the final 6 hours, supported by strong volume.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour OHLCV data reveals a key support zone forming around 0.01576, which held during minor corrections, and a resistance level at 0.01602 that was tested and briefly breached. A bullish engulfing pattern appeared at 08:00–09:00 ET, suggesting a potential reversal after a short bearish consolidation. Later in the day, from 04:15 ET onward, a strong bullish trend took shape, with price closing near daily highs. A doji formed at 05:30 ET, indicating indecision before the breakout.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were in a bullish alignment by 04:30 ET, confirming upward momentum. The price traded above both lines in the final 6 hours, reinforcing the strength of the move. On a daily timeframe, the 50-period and 200-period lines were converging, with the 50-period approaching from below, suggesting potential for a larger bullish phase.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned positive and crossed above the signal line just before 04:00 ET, aligning with the breakout. RSI remained in neutral territory between 50 and 60 for much of the session, but surged to 65 by 07:00 ET, indicating strong upward momentum without extreme overbought conditions. There were no significant overbought readings, suggesting the rally is still within healthy bounds.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed moderate volatility for most of the day, with price staying in the middle third of the band. However, from 04:15 ET onward, volatility expanded as the price moved above the upper band for a short period, signaling a strong breakout. The close near 0.01602 was slightly below the upper band, indicating that the upward move may not be over, but caution is warranted on a break of the 0.01619 high.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged to over 177,910 at 04:15 ET, coinciding with the initial break of 0.01583, confirming strong buying interest. This was followed by a smaller but notable spike in the 08:00–09:00 ET window. Notional turnover mirrored the volume, peaking at $2,824.30 at 04:15 ET. The correlation between volume and price action suggests that the recent move was well-supported, with no divergence observed.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the key swing from 0.01555 to 0.01619 shows that the 0.382 level (0.01586) was a minor support during the consolidation phase. The 0.618 level (0.01595) held briefly, but the price continued upward. The 12:00 ET close at 0.01602 is close to the 0.786 retracement level, suggesting that a test of the 0.01619 high or even a push above could follow.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering long positions when the price breaks above the 0.618 Fibonacci level and the 50-period moving average turns upward, as seen at 04:15 ET. A stop-loss could be placed just below the recent consolidation low at 0.01583. Given the strong volume and MACD confirmation, the risk-reward ratio appears favorable for a short-term hold of 1–2 hours. This setup could be backtested over similar 24-hour windows in the past month to assess win rate and average return.