Market Overview for Threshold/USD Coin (TUSDC): 24-Hour Technical Summary

• Price declined from $0.01659 to $0.01624, a ~2.1% 24-hour drop.
• Key support tested near $0.01634 with bearish continuation patterns emerging.
• Volatility expanded as volume surged near $0.01644–$0.01651.
• Momentum weakened on the RSI, suggesting potential short-term oversold conditions.

Threshold/USD Coin (TUSDC) opened at $0.01657 on 2025-09-10 12:00 ET, reached a high of $0.01659, fell to a low of $0.01624, and closed at $0.01624 on 2025-09-11 12:00 ET. The total notional turnover over the past 24 hours was $1.64 million, with ~529,000 units traded.

Structure & Formations

TUSDC's price structure shows a bearish bias, with key support levels forming around $0.01634 and $0.01624. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged between 05:30 and 05:45 ET, confirming the downward shift in sentiment. A long lower shadow at 04:45–05:00 ET suggested a failed attempt to rally above $0.01647, reinforcing the bearish narrative. A doji at 02:15–02:30 ET highlighted indecision but did not reverse the trend.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs both trended downward, with price remaining below both, signaling bearish momentum. The 50-period SMA crossed below the 100-period SMA in the early hours, reinforcing a bearish crossover. The 200-period SMA, however, remains above current price levels, indicating that the long-term trend has not yet turned decisively bearish.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the signal line around 09:00 ET, confirming a bearish shift in momentum. The histogram showed a steady contraction in bullish energy. RSI reached oversold territory below 30 for a brief period around 15:00 ET, suggesting a possible short-term bounce. However, given the context of the bearish price action, this could represent a false signal or a retracement within a larger downtrend.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly as price tested the lower Bollinger Band near $0.01624. The bands widened after 04:00 ET, indicating growing uncertainty and increased trading activity during the decline. Price closed near the lower band, which typically signals oversold conditions, though in a strong downtrend, this could simply represent continuation of bearish bias.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked around $0.01644–$0.01651, with over 110,000 units traded during a 45-minute window. This coincided with a sharp drop in price, confirming the bearish move. However, volume declined significantly after 10:00 ET, suggesting reduced conviction in the downtrend. The notional turnover also dropped below $100,000 in the final hours, indicating a potential pause in selling pressure.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the key 15-minute swing from $0.01659 (high) to $0.01624 (low), the 38.2% retracement level is at $0.01642, and the 61.8% level is at $0.01636. Price briefly bounced off the 61.8% level during the early morning, but it failed to hold, suggesting traders may be treating these levels as temporary resistance.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy for TUSDC involves entering short positions when price breaks below the 20-period SMA on the 15-minute chart, confirmed by a bearish engulfing pattern and RSI crossing into oversold territory. A stop-loss could be placed above the 38.2% Fibonacci level, while a take-profit target might be set at the 61.8% level or the nearest support area. This approach aims to capitalize on momentum shifts during periods of high volatility, while avoiding false signals by requiring confirmation from volume and pattern alignment.