Market Overview for THENA/Turkish Lira (THETRY): Sharp 24-Hour Correction Amid High Volatility

Summary
• THENA/Turkish Lira (THETRY) formed a bearish engulfing pattern at 9.16, followed by a sharp decline to 8.328.
• RSI dropped below 30 during the selloff, indicating potential oversold conditions, but volume failed to confirm strength.
• Bollinger Bands expanded during the final 4 hours, reflecting rising volatility, with price near the lower band at close.

Market Overview

THENA/Turkish Lira (THETRY) opened at 9.102 on 2025-12-28 12:00 ET, surged to a high of 9.165, then declined sharply to a low of 8.074 before closing at 8.100 on 2025-12-29 12:00 ET. Total volume reached 1,195,157.3 and notional turnover amounted to 10,245,082.5 TRY over 24 hours.

Structure & Formations

A bearish engulfing pattern formed at the high of 9.16, confirming the top. The price then broke down through key support levels at 9.06, 8.965, and 8.901 before hitting 8.328. A potential short-term support zone now appears near 8.30–8.35, with 8.45 as a near-term resistance.

Moving Averages and Momentum

Short-term moving averages on the 5-minute chart (20SMA and 50SMA) have crossed bearishly, reinforcing the downward trend. RSI dropped below 30 in the final hours, indicating oversold conditions, but volume failed to confirm a strong rebound. MACD showed a bearish crossover, with negative divergence between momentum and price.

Volatility and Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased sharply as the price dropped below 8.40, with Bollinger Bands expanding. At close, the price sat near the lower band, suggesting potential for a rebound. However, the widening bands indicate ongoing uncertainty and mixed signals for a reversal.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume surged during the final hours, especially after the price broke below 8.45, suggesting increased conviction in the selloff. However, notional turnover showed a divergence during the rebound from 8.328 to 8.44—volume declined while price rose—raising questions about the strength of the bounce.

Fibonacci and Risk Outlook

Fibonacci levels for the recent 5-minute swing suggest a 61.8% retracement at around 8.45 could offer resistance. A retest of the 8.30–8.35 support may occur if the bearish momentum continues. Investors should watch for a break below 8.30, which could trigger a reacceleration of the sell-off.

The market appears to be in a high-volatility phase, with a strong short-term bias to the downside. While oversold conditions may offer a potential rebound, confirmation is needed via higher volume and a break above 8.45 to signal a recovery. Until then, a cautious bearish stance remains prudent.