Market Overview for THENA/Turkish Lira (THETRY) – September 15, 2025

• THENA/Turkish Lira (THETRY) dropped 9.6% in 24 hours, with a bearish breakdown from 14.50 to 13.03.
• Volume spiked 4x above average during the 14:15–14:30 ET selloff, confirming downward momentum.
• RSI entered oversold territory below 30, suggesting potential near-term reversal or consolidation.
• Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the breakdown, signaling heightened volatility.
• Price failed to hold key 13.65–13.70 support twice, confirming bearish bias ahead of 12.90–13.00.

The 24-hour period for THETRY began at 14.358 and closed at 13.031 after hitting a high of 14.595 and a low of 13.0. Total volume for the period was 250,223.5, and total notional turnover came in at 3,316,800 Turkish Lira. The market exhibited a strong bearish bias, with a prolonged decline accelerating after 14:15 ET as volume surged and price broke key support levels.

Structure & Formations

Price carved a bearish flag pattern between 14.50 and 14.60, which collapsed around 14:15 ET. Key resistance levels at 14.50, 14.45, and 14.35 were sequentially breached, while support levels at 13.65–13.70 and 13.40–13.45 failed twice each. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 14.607 during the breakdown, while a doji appeared at 13.210, hinting at short-term indecision. The price closed at 13.031, below the 13.00 psychological level, reinforcing bearish sentiment.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart were in a bearish crossover, with the 50-period line well above the 20-period. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA was significantly above the 100 and 200-period lines, all pointing to a longer-term downtrend. Price is now well below all three moving averages, indicating a deepening bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned negative early in the session and remained below zero, with bearish divergence forming between price and the histogram after 14:00 ET. RSI fell sharply into oversold territory below 30 by 15:45 ET, suggesting a potential pause or bounce in the short term. However, the absence of a strong RSI rebound implies weak reversal sentiment, and price remains pressured to test lower levels.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded rapidly during the breakdown, reflecting heightened volatility. By 14:30 ET, price was well below the lower band, confirming a strong bearish move. The bands are now wide open, signaling potential for continued price divergence from the mean. If RSI fails to rebound and MACD remains bearish, price could extend below the 12.90–13.00 level.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the 14:15–14:30 ET breakdown, with a spike in notional turnover as price dropped from 13.225 to 13.081. The largest single candle, from 14:15–14:30 ET, accounted for over 40,000 Turkish Lira in turnover. Volume was above average for most of the decline, confirming the bearish move. However, a divergence between declining price and lower volume after 15:30 ET suggests weakening momentum and possible consolidation ahead.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent 15-minute swing from 14.607 to 13.011 shows key levels at 13.65 (38.2%) and 13.30 (50%), both of which were tested but failed to hold. On the daily chart, a key 61.8% retracement level at 13.10–13.15 may act as a short-term support. The 12.90–13.00 area, corresponding to the 78.6% retracement, is now a critical level to watch.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy outlined involves a short entry when price breaks below a 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart, with a stop loss placed at the most recent swing high and a target at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent bullish leg. Based on today’s data, this strategy would have triggered a short signal early in the session when price crossed below the 50-period MA. The stop loss at 14.45 would have been triggered by the subsequent pullback, but if managed, the target at 13.10 would have been hit. This suggests a viable short-term bearish framework that aligns with the observed technical indicators.