Market Overview for THENA/Turkish Lira (THETRY) – October 12, 2025

• THENA/Turkish Lira (THETRY) dropped to a 24-hour low of 10.899 before recovering into a late-night rally.
• Momentum reversed sharply after a bearish breakdown below 11.35 in early hours.
• Volatility surged during the 12:00–16:00 ET window with a 24-hour turnover of $4.65 million.
• Price closed 14.5% higher near the 15-minute period close of 12.995, forming a bullish reversal pattern.
• Bollinger Bands expanded sharply, indicating heightened short-term uncertainty and potential for further moves.

THENA/Turkish Lira (THETRY) opened at 11.865 on October 11 at 12:00 ET and closed at 12.995 on October 12 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 13.08 and a low of 10.899. Total 15-minute OHLC data over 24 hours showed a total volume of 3,129,346.0 and a notional turnover of approximately $4.65 million.

The 24-hour chart revealed a strong bearish breakdown beginning at 19:30 ET with a sharp descent to 10.906, followed by a strong bullish reversal starting from 21:30 ET. A key support level emerged around 11.35, which held during the morning hours and acted as a psychological floor for the rebound. A notable bullish engulfing pattern formed at the end of the rebound, suggesting momentum has shifted in favor of buyers. The 15-minute chart confirmed a fractal-level reversal with a bullish morning star configuration emerging between 21:15 and 21:45 ET.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart showed multiple support and resistance levels, with 11.35, 11.65, and 12.178 acting as key reference points. A large bearish candle formed at 19:45 ET with a high of 11.467 and close of 11.352, followed by a consolidation phase. A breakout above 12.178 in the afternoon marked a psychological resistance level, which was tested and held during the late afternoon. A notable bearish harami pattern appeared at 12:15–12:30 ET with a high of 12.457 and close of 12.52, signaling a possible consolidation or reversal.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period SMA crossed above the 50-period SMA in the late afternoon, confirming a bullish crossover. The 50-period SMA crossed above the 100-period and 200-period SMAs during the late morning, indicating a broader bullish shift. The 200-period SMA, at 11.75 on the daily chart, remained below the current price, suggesting a sustained upward trend.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD line crossed above the signal line at 12:30 ET, confirming bullish momentum. The RSI reached an overbought level of 76 at 15:00 ET and retreated to a neutral 62 by 16:00 ET. The RSI then dropped to 38 during the early morning hours before climbing back into neutral territory. A bearish divergence appeared between price and RSI during the initial breakdown, but this reversed in favor of the bulls after the 12:00 ET crossover.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the 12:00–16:00 ET period, indicating increased volatility. Price remained above the middle band during the morning session and below it during the afternoon. The 15-minute chart showed a contraction before the late-night rally, suggesting a possible breakout or reversal. Price closed near the upper band in the final hour, indicating strong bullish conviction.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the morning and late-night sessions, with notable turnover spikes at 09:15, 12:45, 15:00, and 16:00 ET. The largest single-candle volume was 255,682.4 at 15:00 ET, which closed at 12.487, confirming a bullish reversal. Notional turnover also increased significantly in the final hours, aligning with the price action and reinforcing the strength of the rebound.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 19:30–21:30 ET swing (10.906–11.201), the 38.2% level at 11.05 and 61.8% level at 11.18 were tested during the rebound. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement of the 10.899–13.08 move was at 11.88 and held during the afternoon. The 61.8% level at 12.34 was reached by 15:00 ET and remained a key resistance.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy for THETRY could involve entering a long position after a bullish engulfing pattern forms at the end of a 4-hour bearish trend, with a stop-loss placed below the 20-period SMA and a take-profit target at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent bearish swing. This setup was observed at 21:30 ET and could have yielded a profitable trade by the 04:30 ET close. The strategy would benefit from combining RSI divergence and volume confirmation for filtering high-probability entries.