Market Overview for THENA/Turkish Lira (THETRY)

Summary
• THENA/Turkish Lira dropped sharply from 7.837 to a 24-hour low of 7.397.
• Volume surged in bearish sessions, notably at 7.748 and 7.641.
• A long bearish candle and a bearish engulfing pattern formed during key declines.
• RSI shows oversold levels, while MACD remains negative with bearish divergence.
• Volatility increased with widening Bollinger Bands, signaling possible continuation.

Open, Close, and Key Levels

On 2025-11-12 at 12:00 ET, THENA/Turkish Lira (THETRY) opened at 7.814, hit a high of 7.849, and a low of 7.397, closing at 7.434. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 889,871.4, with a notional turnover of approximately 6,614,867.2 TRY. The sharp drop suggests a strong bearish sentiment, especially between 17:45 and 19:15 ET, when the price fell from 7.795 to 7.641.

Support and Resistance Levels

Key support appears to be consolidating around the 7.40–7.43 range, while a failed test of 7.50–7.52 suggests resistance is still firm. A notable bearish engulfing pattern formed at 7.469, followed by a long bearish candle between 7.469 and 7.434. The 7.397 level may now serve as a new psychological floor, though a break below this could trigger further declines toward 7.30.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, price closed below the 20 and 50-period moving averages, suggesting short-term bearish momentum. The daily chart shows a bearish bias with price below all three major moving averages (50, 100, 200). The RSI has entered oversold territory (below 30), but this is not a strong buy signal as the MACD remains negative and shows bearish divergence, hinting that the downward move may continue despite the exhaustion of short-term sellers.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility expanded sharply between 17:45 and 21:45 ET, with price trading near the lower band. The widening bands reflect increased uncertainty in the market. Price now sits slightly above the lower band, suggesting the market may consolidate for a short period before resuming the bearish trend.

Volume and Turnover

Volume surged during key bearish moves, especially at 7.748 and 7.641, confirming the strength of the sell-off. However, volume during the 7.434–7.482 rebound was relatively low, indicating weak buying interest. A divergence between price and volume suggests that the current rally may lack conviction and could reverse quickly.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the key swing from 7.849 to 7.397, the 38.2% and 61.8% levels are at 7.633 and 7.519, respectively. Price is currently near the 7.519 level, which may offer temporary resistance. A rebound above 7.525 could see buyers test the 7.633 level, but failure to hold above 7.519 may see a retest of the 7.40 support.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting results from a period of three and a half years (2022-01-01 to 2025-11-12) offer a compelling lens through which to view the current bearish bias. With a total return of +109.4% and an annualized return of 65.5%, the strategy has historically benefited from short-term directional trades, particularly bearish signals that align with the current price action. The average trade return of +2.83% and a Sharpe ratio of 1.26 indicate the strategy is risk-adjusted and profitable. However, with a maximum drawdown of -35.4%, the risk of sharp declines remains, especially if current bearish momentum continues. These results support the technical indicators currently suggesting bearish continuation, with strong emphasis on volume confirmation and key Fibonacci levels.

Outlook and Risk Caveat

Looking ahead, price may test the 7.40–7.43 support zone, with a break below 7.397 opening the door to further declines. While RSI suggests oversold conditions, the bearish MACD and volume divergence imply caution. Investors should watch for a potential rebound to the 7.52–7.54 range, where key Fibonacci and moving average levels may provide resistance. As always, risk management is crucial—especially in a market where volatility and volume are key drivers.