Market Overview for THENA/Turkish Lira (THETRY)

• THENA/Turkish Lira (THETRY) opened at 9.16 and closed at 9.354, with a 24-hour high of 9.408 and low of 8.912.
• A strong rebound emerged from the 8.94 support zone, forming multiple bullish reversal patterns like hammers and inside bars.
• RSI hit oversold territory below 30 early in the session, suggesting a potential reversal which was confirmed by price action.
• Volatility expanded throughout the day, with volume spiking on key moves, particularly in the 18:00–20:00 ET range.
• Fibonacci levels at 9.216 and 9.148 acted as critical reentry points, with the price retracing to both on multiple occasions.

Opening and Closing Summary

THENA/Turkish Lira (THETRY) opened at 9.16 on 2025-11-01 at 12:00 ET−1 and closed at 9.354 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour period saw a high of 9.408 and a low of 8.912. The total volume for the session was 1,361,747.8 units, with a notional turnover of approximately 12,312,094 Turkish Lira. This suggests active participation and liquidity, especially in the late-night and early-morning trading hours.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed multiple key levels. A strong support area emerged between 8.912 and 8.94, where a series of bullish hammers and inside bars formed, suggesting a buying interest. Resistance levels were observed at 9.148 and 9.216, where the price repeatedly found rejection before pushing higher. On the 15-minute chart, a bullish engulfing pattern appeared at 9.123, signaling a shift in momentum. Later in the session, an inside bar at 9.28 was followed by a strong breakout to the upside.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were in bullish alignment, with price staying above both in the latter half of the session. This suggests a short-term uptrend. On the daily chart, price remained above the 50 and 200-period moving averages, indicating a longer-term bullish bias. The 100-period moving average acted as a minor support near 9.18 during the morning hours.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed above the signal line in the morning, confirming the uptrend. Divergence was noted around 9.24, where price made higher highs but MACD failed to do so, hinting at potential exhaustion. RSI reached an oversold level near 30 in the early session, then surged past 60 midday and remained in overbought territory for several hours, indicating strong short-term momentum but also raising the risk of a pullback.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy outlined a “hold-for-N-days” approach using closing prices, with a maximum holding period of 3 days. This aligns with the observed short-term momentum and the multiple intra-day reversal patterns. The price action around key moving averages and Fibonacci levels suggests potential for similar strategies, especially during high-volume hours. However, the RSI divergence around 9.24 and the overbought condition at close caution against overextending long positions without a clear stop-loss framework.