Market Overview for THENA/Turkish Lira (THETRY)

• THENA/Turkish Lira (THETRY) declined by 0.63% over 24 hours, closing at 10.906 after reaching a high of 11.04 and falling to 10.704.
• Volatility expanded during the session, with multiple intraday swings above and below key psychological levels.
• Volume peaked at 34,724.4 units during the 745 AM ET candle, but failed to confirm a breakout.
• RSI entered overbought territory briefly near 80 but retreated into neutral range, suggesting potential exhaustion.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed at 10.918–10.887, but failed to hold during a later bearish reversal at 10.924–10.906.

The 24-hour period for THENA/Turkish Lira (THETRY) started with an open at 10.777 and closed at 10.906 at 12:00 ET, following a high of 11.04 and a low of 10.704. Total volume reached 347,244.4 units, while turnover amounted to $11.8 million (based on 10.906 as a proxy for Lira conversion). Price action showed a late-night rally, followed by a consolidation phase and a bearish reversal at the close, suggesting indecision among market participants.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels formed at 10.84–10.88 and 10.75–10.80, while resistance clustered around 10.92–10.96 and 11.00–11.04. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged at 10.918–10.887 (7:45 AM ET), indicating short-term buying interest. However, this was quickly undone by a bearish reversal at 10.924–10.906 (3:45 PM ET), signaling profit-taking and bearish sentiment ahead of the close.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed several times, with price frequently oscillating between them. This indicates a choppy session and suggests that a directional bias has not yet solidified. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA currently sits just above 10.85, while the 200-period MA is below, hinting at a potential long-term bullish bias if price breaks above 10.94.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram showed a brief positive divergence during the 3:00 AM to 4:00 AM window, but failed to confirm a bullish breakout. RSI peaked near 80 during the early morning, then declined sharply into the 50–55 range by the close, indicating waning momentum. A potential overbought condition was followed by a pullback, suggesting a possible reversal scenario.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the session, with the upper band reaching 11.06 and the lower band dropping to 10.73. Price spent the majority of the session within the bands, with two notable excursions near 11.04 and 10.704. The expansion suggests increased trading pressure, while the return to the band center indicates a potential consolidation phase.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to over 34,724.4 units during the 7:45 AM ET candle, coinciding with the bullish engulfing formation. However, turnover did not confirm the breakout, suggesting that volume was driven by large orders or wash trading rather than broad-based accumulation. A divergence between price and volume appeared in the last 3 hours, with falling price but stable volume, hinting at a possible bearish divergence.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 15-minute high-low of 11.04–10.704, the 61.8% retracement level is at 10.854 and the 38.2% level is at 10.936. Price tested both levels during the session, but failed to hold above 10.936, reinforcing bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50% and 61.8% retracement levels align with 10.87 and 10.81, respectively, with current price hovering just above the 50% level.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential strategy based on candlestick patterns, such as the Bullish Engulfing, could be tested using historical signals. The formation observed at 10.918–10.887 (7:45 AM ET) could serve as a candidate entry if confirmed by volume and RSI. A 3-day backtest would evaluate how frequently such signals resulted in positive returns, particularly when aligned with key Fibonacci and moving average levels. However, due to a data discrepancy with the ticker "THETRY," historical signals are unavailable at this time.