Market Overview for THENA/Turkish Lira (THETRY)

• Price fell 6.7% from 18.17 to 16.66
• Volatility expanded with a 15.4% range and large volume spikes
• Momentum weakened as RSI hit 25, indicating oversold territory
• Bollinger Bands widened, reflecting increased uncertainty
• Price is now testing support at 16.5–16.7 level

The THENA/Turkish Lira (THETRY) pair opened at 18.17 on 2025-09-24 at 12:00 ET and closed at 16.66 by the same time on 2025-09-25. Price action saw a significant drop of 6.7% over the 24-hour period, with a high of 18.498 and a low of 16.361. Total volume was 2,312,984.3 with a turnover of approximately $39,956,700 (assuming an average rate of ~17.25).

Structurally, the price moved through a descending pattern with bearish confirmation. A large bearish engulfing candle formed on 2025-09-24 22:15–22:30, signaling a shift in sentiment. Key support levels at 16.5–16.7 appear to be holding for now, while resistance at 17.6–17.8 failed decisively. A doji formed around 16.96 on 2025-09-25 04:45–05:00, hinting at indecision in the short term.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart show a bearish crossover: the 20SMA crossed below the 50SMA during the sharp drop in price. On the daily chart, the 50DMA has crossed below the 200DMA, reinforcing a longer-term bearish bias. The price is currently below all three main moving averages, suggesting further downside could be expected unless a strong reversal occurs.

Momentum is clearly bearish, with the RSI on the 15-minute chart hitting 25–26 levels on multiple occasions, indicating oversold conditions. The MACD crossed below the signal line early on 2025-09-25 and has remained in negative territory since, with bearish divergence visible during the 06:00–08:00 ET period. Bollinger Bands widened significantly from ~17.3–17.8 to 16.3–17.0, showing increased volatility, with price currently resting near the lower band at 16.66.

Volume spiked during the sharp sell-off starting at 22:15 ET, with over 133,425.1 units traded in the 2025-09-24 22:15–22:30 candle. This coincided with a price drop of 18.175 to 18.105. The high volume during this period confirmed the bearish move. Turnover also rose sharply, but with price continuing to fall, there is no confirmation of a bottom yet. A divergence between low turnover and strong price movement in the 16.61–16.77 range may suggest a potential near-term bottom.

Fibonacci retracements on the 15-minute chart highlight key levels at 16.7–16.8 (38.2%) and 16.5–16.6 (61.8%). The daily chart shows a similar 61.8% retracement at 16.66, which aligns with the current price. The price may find short-term support at 16.5 or 16.375 before facing a potential bounce or further decline.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could focus on short-term bearish entries following a confirmed bearish engulfing pattern or a strong RSI oversold signal. For example, a sell signal may be triggered when the RSI falls below 25, with a stop loss set slightly above the high of the pattern. A take-profit target could be set at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. This strategy would aim to capitalize on the momentum seen during the early morning sell-off on 2025-09-25, with strict risk management to protect against potential reversals or volatility spikes.