Market Overview for THENA/Turkish Lira (THETRY)

• THENA/Turkish Lira (THETRY) declined by ~6.6% in 24 hours, reaching a 24-hour low of 14.877.
• Momentum weakened with RSI under 30 and MACD bearish divergence.
• Volatility expanded after a Bollinger Band contraction, with volume surging near lows.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed near 15.30, confirming a key resistance breakdown.
• Turnover spiked to over $88,000 at 12:15 ET as price dropped sharply to 14.879.

Opening Snapshot

The 24-hour session for THENA/Turkish Lira (THETRY) opened at 16.463 on 2025-09-25 16:00 ET and closed at 14.879 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-26. Price touched an intraday high of 16.682 and a low of 14.877, with total volume exceeding 1,147,624.3 and notional turnover reaching ~$18,193,767.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels formed around 15.15–15.18, with price consolidating near that zone late in the session. A bearish engulfing pattern developed at 15.30–15.255, confirming a breakdown in a former support-turned-resistance. A potential recovery attempt failed at 15.45–15.47, forming a doji at 15.452–15.363. A strong bear trendline from 16.682 to 14.879 suggests further downside could target 14.75 on a break.

Moving Averages and Bollinger Bands

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart both trended downward, with the 20-period lagging the 50-period—suggesting bear momentum. Bollinger Bands expanded significantly after a period of contraction, with price now trading near the lower band at 14.877. This setup implies a potential rebound or continuation of the bear trend, depending on the strength of any rally.

MACD and RSI

The MACD showed a bearish crossover in early morning hours, with the signal line pulling away from the histogram. RSI dropped below 30 by 12:30 ET and remained in oversold territory, failing to show a convincing rebound. Divergence between price and RSI suggests bears still hold control, but a sustained break above 15.20 could trigger a temporary bounce.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked at 14.879, with over 881,735.5 contracts traded in a 15-minute window. Turnover also reached a 24-hour high of ~$13,361,532 during the same period. A divergence between volume and price was observed at 15.30–15.255, where declining volume failed to confirm a strong bear move. However, volume surged on the next leg lower, confirming bear dominance.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fib levels from the 16.682 high to 14.879 low indicate key retracement zones at 15.50 (38.2%) and 15.24 (61.8%). The 61.8% level coincided with a minor support and failed recovery attempt. A break below 14.879 would target 14.75 (78.6%) on the 24-hour chart, with potential for a test of 14.55 if the bear trend continues.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described utilizes a **15-minute EMA crossover (20/50) combined with a bearish engulfing pattern and RSI < 30** to generate sell entries. A stop loss is placed above the recent swing high, and the target is set at 61.8% of the retracement from the high to the low. Given the current setup, this strategy may have yielded a high-probability short trade at ~15.20–15.30. However, a break above 15.40 could invalidate the pattern and increase the risk of a false signal.