Market Overview: THENA/Turkish Lira (THETRY) – 24-Hour Technical Analysis

• Price declined from a peak of 14.35 to a low of 14.015 before recovering to 14.373, forming a volatile 24-hour range.
• Momentum weakened after 19:30 ET, with RSI signaling oversold conditions and a lack of follow-through buying.
• Volume surged after 22:30 ET but failed to confirm bullish momentum, raising divergence concerns.
• Bollinger Bands showed moderate volatility expansion, with price hovering near the upper band late in the session.
• Fibonacci retracements highlighted key psychological levels at 14.21, 14.34, and 14.29, which were repeatedly tested and retested.

The THENA/Turkish Lira (THETRY) pair opened at 14.337 on 2025-09-10 at 12:00 ET, hit a high of 14.373, a low of 14.015, and closed at 14.153 on 2025-09-11 at 12:00 ET. Total 24-hour volume was 319,725.1, and notional turnover was 4,582,384 Turkish Lira, indicating moderate trading interest.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute candlestick chart revealed a volatile range with alternating bullish and bearish tendencies. A key resistance level emerged around 14.32–14.35, where price repeatedly stalled. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 19:30 ET after a short-term rally failed to sustain. A long-legged doji appeared near 14.10 at 06:00 ET, suggesting indecision and potential reversal. Notable support levels were identified around 14.15–14.20 and 14.05–14.10, both of which held during sharp declines and acted as bounce points.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed near 14.25–14.27, forming a potential bullish signal. However, the price did not confirm this with a close above the 50-period MA. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sits at 14.23, slightly below the current price. The 100-period MA is at 14.18, and the 200-period MA at 14.15, suggesting the pair is trading within a constructive trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed above the signal line near 14.29, but the histogram began to contract, signaling weakening bullish momentum. The RSI reached an oversold level of 30 around 19:30 ET but failed to trigger a sustained rebound. On the recovery leg, RSI moved into overbought territory above 70, indicating potential exhaustion in the bullish move. This suggests that traders may be cautious about entering long positions without a clear breakout above 14.34.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described involves entering long positions when the 20-period MA crosses above the 50-period MA on the 15-minute chart, while the RSI is above 50 and volume is increasing. Short positions are triggered when the 20-period MA crosses below the 50-period MA and RSI is below 50. Given the recent divergence in volume and RSI behavior, this strategy may not perform optimally in the current environment without additional volatility or a clear breakout. A tightening of the Bollinger Bands could signal a potential breakout opportunity that might align with the strategy's entry conditions.