Market Overview: THENA/Turkish Lira (THETRY) in a 24-Hour Bearish Slide

• THENA/Turkish Lira (THETRY) fell 8.7% over 24 hours amid bearish 15-minute candlestick patterns.
• Price dropped below key support levels, with RSI showing oversold territory near 30.
• Volatility expanded in early ET, with heavy turnover near 16.65 and 16.45.
• Bollinger Bands widened following a sharp decline, indicating heightened risk.
• MACD turned bearish with a negative crossover, reinforcing downward momentum.

The THENA/Turkish Lira pair (THETRY) opened at 16.945 on 2025-09-18 12:00 ET and closed at 15.661 on 2025-09-19 12:00 ET, marking a 24-hour low of 15.50 and a high of 17.063. Total volume amounted to 764,828.8, while notional turnover reached $12,985,289. The price has shown a sharp decline, breaking below multiple psychological levels and forming several bearish patterns.

Structure & Formations
The 15-minute chart reveals a strong bearish bias, with a long bearish candle forming around 16.741, followed by a series of lower lows and lower highs. Key support levels have been tested and breached, particularly at 16.50 and 16.30. A notable bearish engulfing pattern appears at the start of the decline, while a bearish harami pattern emerges near 16.454. A potential support zone appears at 15.64–15.50, with a prior low at 15.50 serving as a psychological floor.

Moving Averages
On the 15-minute chart, the price closed well below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing the bearish trend. The 50-period line currently sits at ~16.40 and is being tested as a short-term support. On the daily chart, the price is below the 50, 100, and 200-period MAs, suggesting continuation of a multi-day bearish bias.

MACD & RSI
The MACD has turned negative and crossed below the signal line, confirming bearish momentum. The RSI has fallen into oversold territory (below 30), signaling that further decline may face short-term resistance from technical buyers. However, with price action still trending lower, the RSI is expected to rebound as price stabilizes.

Bollinger Bands
The price has fallen to the lower Bollinger Band, indicating volatility expansion and potential exhaustion of the downward move. A rebound from the band is possible, especially if the 15.50 level holds. The band width has widened significantly over the last 8 hours, reflecting heightened market uncertainty and selling pressure.

Volume & Turnover
Volume surged during the sharp decline from 17.063 to 16.454, with the largest volume spike at 16.65 and 16.45. The notional turnover also spiked during the price drop, indicating strong conviction in the bearish move. However, a divergence is forming as volume starts to wane near the current level, suggesting potential near-term support.

Fibonacci Retracements
Key retracement levels based on the recent 15-minute swing (17.063 to 15.661) show 61.8% at ~16.15 and 38.2% at ~16.65. The 61.8% level has been tested and failed, reinforcing the bearish trend. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the broader move appears at ~14.90, which could be a longer-term target if the trend continues.

The next 24 hours could see a test of the 15.64–15.50 range, where buyers may emerge. However, a break below 15.50 would likely target 15.35 on Fibonacci and 15.20 as extended support. Traders should remain cautious, as oversold RSI levels may not guarantee a reversal in a strong downtrend environment.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtest strategy proposes a short bias triggered by a bearish engulfing pattern on the 15-minute chart and a MACD crossover below the signal line. Stops would be placed above the high of the bearish candle, and exits would follow either a 10% target based on Fibonacci retracement or a 5% trailing stop. Given today’s pattern and momentum indicators, the strategy aligns well with recent price action, offering a high-probability short entry. This approach may serve as a viable setup for traders seeking to capitalize on continuation in the near term.