Market Overview: THENA/Turkish Lira (THETRY) 24-Hour Analysis

• THENA/Turkish Lira (THETRY) dropped 19.5% over 24 hours, with a sharp sell-off beginning around 16:00 ET on the 21st.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed at the peak, followed by a doji on the rebound.
• RSI moved into oversold territory (22) as of 16:00 ET, suggesting potential near-term reversal risk.
• Volatility expanded significantly early in the session, with a 15-minute range of 0.77 TRY.
• Volume spiked in early hours, confirming the initial downtrend; volume then declined during consolidation.

The THENA/Turkish Lira (THETRY) pair opened at 25.083 TRY on September 21 at 12:00 ET and closed at 20.624 TRY on the same time the following day. The price fell sharply to a low of 19.487 TRY before a minor rebound. The total volume traded was 13,948,699.7 units, while the notional turnover amounted to approximately 287,967,758 TRY. This suggests a strong bearish sentiment over the 24-hour period.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick data reveals a clear bearish bias, marked by a large bearish engulfing pattern at 16:00 ET when price opened at 25.083 and closed at 24.227 after hitting a high of 25.059. A significant doji formed at 22:30 ET, signaling indecision in the market. Key support levels were observed at 21.424 TRY and 20.344 TRY, with the latter holding during the final hours of the session. Resistance remains at 22.90 TRY, where the price stalled multiple times.

Moving Averages

Using the 20-period and 50-period EMA on the 15-minute chart, the short-term average (20 EMA) dropped below the 50 EMA, confirming a bearish crossover. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA has fallen below the 200-period SMA, reinforcing the downtrend. This suggests that both short- and medium-term traders are shifting their positions lower, with further downside momentum likely unless the price breaks above the 23.332 TRY level.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative and remained in the bearish zone throughout the session, with a bearish crossover occurring at 17:00 ET. RSI dipped below 30 at 22:30 ET, entering oversold territory. This suggests that the price may retest a key support level before a potential short-term bounce. However, the RSI did not form a bullish divergence, indicating that the momentum may continue to pull the price lower unless a strong reversal occurs.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility spiked during the initial sell-off, with the bands widening significantly. The price traded near the lower band for much of the session, confirming the bearish bias. A contraction in the Bollinger Bands occurred briefly around 04:00 ET, suggesting a period of consolidation. However, the price failed to break the upper band at 23.925 TRY during a late morning rebound, indicating ongoing weakness.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked early in the session as the price collapsed from 25.083 to 21.88, with over 1.1 million units traded at 17:30 ET. This volume confirmed the bearish break. However, as the price approached the 20.344 TRY level, volume began to decline, suggesting that the sell-off may be losing steam. The notional turnover followed a similar pattern, with the highest turnover occurring around the initial sell-off.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 24-hour move from 25.083 to 19.487, the 61.8% level is at 21.90 TRY, and the 38.2% level is at 23.27 TRY. The price tested both levels multiple times during the session but failed to hold above 23.27 TRY. This suggests that the 21.90 TRY level is a critical support area, and a break below this may accelerate the decline toward the 19.487 TRY low.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed price behavior, a potential backtest strategy could involve entering a short position at the open of a bearish engulfing pattern and exiting at the close of the next bearish confirmation candle. A stop-loss could be placed just above the high of the engulfing pattern, while a take-profit target could be set at the 61.8% Fibonacci level. This approach aligns with the RSI oversold readings and the Bollinger Band expansion, aiming to capture short-term bearish momentum before a potential bounce or consolidation.