Market Overview: THENA/Turkish Lira (THETRY) on 2026-01-01

Summary
• Price surged to $9.135 on rising volume before retracting to $8.766 in early morning.
• Momentum waned after 05:00 ET, with RSI hinting at oversold conditions by 06:00 ET.
• Bollinger contraction in late ET hours precedes sharp rebound near key Fibonacci levels.
• Volume spiked to 514,821.1 units during early drop, diverging from bearish price action.
• Evening bullish engulfing and morning doji signal indecision and potential reversal.

The THENA/Turkish Lira (THETRY) pair opened at $8.654 on 2026-01-01, reached a high of $9.135, and a low of $8.733, closing at $8.766 by 12:00 ET. Total volume was 1,278,181.1 units, with $11,502,077.38 in notional turnover over the 24-hour period.

Structure & Formations

The price advanced strongly from 17:00 to 21:45 ET, forming a bullish continuation pattern with a key engulfing candle at $9.122–$9.079. A late-night bearish divergence emerged, marked by a high-volume selloff into $8.891, followed by a morning doji at $8.907–$8.907. The price found support at the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the previous $9.135–$8.766 move, reinforcing potential near-term stability.

Moving Averages and Momentum

The 20-period (5-min) moving average trended upward through the evening surge but flattened as the rally stalled. The 50-period MA confirmed the bearish shift in the 02:00–06:00 ET window. MACD diverged from price after 03:00 ET, with a bearish crossover followed by a weak bullish signal before the close. RSI bottomed at ~30 in the 06:00–07:00 ET window, suggesting potential near-term buying interest, but without follow-through.

Volatility and Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands constricted between 05:30–06:00 ET, preceding a sharp rebound near the 21:30 high. By the end of the session, the price hovered just below the 20-period upper band, indicating elevated volatility. The bands remained wide during the evening rally, showing strong directional bias.

Volume and Turnover Divergences

Volume surged during the early morning sell-off, hitting 514,821.1 units, while price continued lower—suggesting exhausted bearish pressure. Notional turnover followed closely, peaking at $1.16M in that same window. However, by 08:00–09:00 ET, volume declined significantly despite a 200-point price swing, hinting at reduced conviction in the downward move.

Given the recent consolidation around key Fibonacci and support levels, the market may attempt a short-term reversal in the next 24 hours. However, sustained bearish volume and RSI divergence remain risk factors for potential pullback. Investors should monitor 20-period MA crosses and volume responses for confirmation.