Market Overview: THENA/Turkish Lira (THETRY) on 2025-12-16

Summary
• THENA/Turkish Lira (THETRY) rallied sharply in early morning ET, forming a bullish engulfing pattern near 7.65–7.70.
• Momentum accelerated with rising volume and RSI entering overbought territory, but price remains within upper Bollinger Band.
• Fibonacci retracements indicate potential pullback toward 7.55–7.60 on 5-min chart, while 20-period MA failed to catch falling price late ET.

THENA/Turkish Lira (THETRY) opened at 7.108 and surged to a 24-hour high of 7.75 before closing at 7.61 on 2025-12-16 at 12:00 ET. Total volume reached 451,142.5 with turnover of $3,239,811.

Structure & Formations

The price trended higher through the early morning, forming a bullish engulfing pattern near 7.65–7.70. A long upper wick during the 06:30–06:45 ET session showed buyers taking control. Late ET saw a sharp pullback, with price closing below the 7.62 level, indicating potential support between 7.55–7.60.

Moving Averages and Momentum

The 20-period MA failed to support the late decline, closing below the 50-period MA, suggesting short-term bearish bias. RSI hit overbought territory around 85 during the 06:30–07:00 ET window but has since retreated. MACD remained positive but showed weakening momentum in the last few hours.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility expanded significantly after 06:00 ET, pushing price close to the upper Bollinger Band. The 5-minute bands have since converged slightly, suggesting a potential consolidation phase ahead.

Volume and Turnover

Volume surged during the early morning bullish push, peaking at 62,762.8 near 08:15 ET. However, the recent pullback occurred on relatively low volume, raising questions about conviction in the current bearish move. Turnover and volume appear aligned, offering confirmation of key price levels.

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Fibonacci Retracements

On the 5-minute chart, the 38.2% retracement level sits near 7.60, with the 61.8% level at 7.55, both of which may offer temporary support. On the daily chart, the 61.8% level is near 7.50, suggesting deeper support if the decline continues.

The next 24 hours could see a test of the 7.55–7.60 range, with a potential bounce or further decline depending on order flow and macro sentiment. Investors should remain cautious of divergences between price and volume during potential breakouts or breakdowns.