Market Overview for THENA/Turkish Lira (THETRY) - 2025-11-06

Summary
• THENA/Turkish Lira advanced by 6.75% over 24 hours, closing at 7.374 TRY with a bullish reversal pattern.
• Momentum strengthened as RSI rose above 50 and MACD turned positive, signaling growing buying pressure.
• Volume surged 46% above the 24-hour average, especially in the final 6 hours, confirming conviction in the rally.
• Price broke above the 20-period 15-min EMA, now acting as dynamic support, and tested the 1.618 Fibonacci level.
• Volatility spiked mid-day, as Bollinger Bands widened, but a consolidation phase began post 02:00 ET.

The Turkish Lira pair for THENA (THETRY) opened at 7.35 on 2025-11-05 at 12:00 ET and advanced to a 24-hour high of 7.532 before consolidating to a close of 7.374 at 12:00 ET. Total volume reached 947,198.0 and turnover hit 6,857,065.2 TRY, reflecting a concentrated buying interest late in the session.

The candlestick pattern over the 24-hour period suggests a bullish reversal after a sharp decline, with a long lower shadow forming from 00:00 to 06:00 ET. Key support levels have been observed near the 7.35–7.37 range, and resistance is building at the 7.47–7.53 cluster. A notable 50-period EMA on the 15-minute chart crossed above 7.35 in the early hours of 2025-11-06, reinforcing a potential short-term trend reversal.

Momentum indicators like RSI and MACD reflect strengthening demand. The RSI crossed into overbought territory above 60 during the peak at 7.532, while the MACD line turned positive after 19:30 ET on the previous day. This divergence suggests that bullish momentum may not yet be exhausted but could indicate short-term overbought conditions.

Bollinger Bands showed a clear volatility expansion from 22:30 to 00:30 ET, with price reaching the upper band before retracting. Volume spiked significantly in the last 6 hours of the 24-hour period, particularly during the 23:30–00:30 ET window when price reached a high of 7.532, confirming the move. This increased volume also supports the formation of a new short-term trend as long as the 7.37–7.38 support level holds.

The price action appears to be favoring bulls in the near term, with the 7.35–7.37 range providing a key support cluster. A sustained break above 7.44 could attract further buyers, potentially pushing toward 7.50. However, the market may face profit-taking pressure in the 7.47–7.53 range, which could trigger a pullback. Traders should remain cautious of any divergence in volume and price during the next 24 hours.

Fibonacci retracements drawn from the key swing low at 7.35 to the high at 7.532 indicate critical levels for the next 24 hours. The 61.8% retracement at 7.44 and 78.6% at 7.48 could act as psychological levels. A break above 7.44 would confirm a bullish bias, while a rejection below 7.37 could initiate a deeper correction. The 38.2% retracement at 7.40 is currently offering support and may be a key area to watch for buying interest.

Backtest Hypothesis

To construct a reliable backtest, the breakout strategy outlined will be implemented using the “THETRY” ticker for the specified period. The resistance level is defined as the highest close of the previous 20 trading days, with an entry signal generated when the price closes above this level. A sell signal will be triggered when the price falls below the lowest close of the previous 10 trading days or after 20 calendar days if the position remains open. No stop-loss or take-profit levels will be applied, allowing the pure breakout rule to be tested.

Given the recent price behavior, this strategy could have entered a long position on 2025-11-05 following the breakout above 7.35. The exit would depend on whether the price closes below the 10-day lowest close or after 20 days, which will be evaluated in the full backtest. This approach aligns with the current technical indicators and price behavior observed in the 24-hour data, particularly the MACD and RSI divergence favoring long positions.