Market Overview for THENA/Turkish Lira (THETRY) - 2025-11-02

• THENA/Turkish Lira (THETRY) opened at 9.35, reached a 24-hour high of 9.419, and closed at 9.283 with a low of 8.98.
• Price dropped nearly 4% after a sharp sell-off in the early hours of 2025-11-02, signaling bearish momentum.
• Volume spiked sharply after 09:30 ET, confirming the downward move, while RSI dipped below 40, suggesting oversold potential.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed around 03:30 ET, followed by a sharp correction to 8.98.

THENA/Turkish Lira (THETRY) opened at 9.35 on 2025-11-01 at 12:00 ET, peaked at 9.419, and closed at 9.283 on 2025-11-02 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour range saw a low of 8.98. Total volume amounted to 699,181.3, and turnover reached $6,609,694.07. The pair has experienced a clear bearish reversal, with key technical indicators aligning with the downward trend.

Price initially rose after a bullish consolidation but reversed sharply following a bearish engulfing pattern around 03:30 ET. This was followed by a rapid decline to 8.98 by 14:30 ET. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart both crossed below the price, confirming bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA remains above the 200-period MA, indicating a potential bearish crossover.

The RSI dropped below 40 during the sharp decline, entering oversold territory, suggesting the potential for a temporary rebound. MACD turned negative and the histogram contracted, reinforcing the bearish momentum. Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the sell-off, showing increased volatility. The price closed near the lower band of the Bollinger Bands on 15-minute charts, suggesting further weakness.

Fibonacci retracements highlighted key levels during the 15-minute swings, with the 61.8% level at ~9.19 acting as a strong support. Volume and turnover spiked during the downward move, confirming the bearish sentiment. Divergences in the price vs. volume were not observed, but the large volume during the selloff from 09:30 to 11:00 ET added weight to the bearish thesis.

The price may test the next support level near 8.90 in the coming 24 hours, with a risk of further downside if the 8.98 level breaks. Investors should monitor the RSI for overbought conditions and the 20/50 EMA crossover for potential trend continuation.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the presence of a clear bearish engulfing pattern on 2025-11-02, a backtest strategy could be designed to assess the historical performance of this pattern. A bearish engulfing candle is typically a reversal signal, especially when it appears after an uptrend and is confirmed by a lower close than the prior bar.

For a backtest strategy, a potential setup could involve shorting the asset upon close of the engulfing candle if it forms after at least a 5% upward move. Stops could be placed above the engulfing candle’s high, and take-profit levels at 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels from the most recent swing high to low.

Using closing prices and a strict 3-day holding period with 5% stop-loss and 8% take-profit targets, a historical backtest could be run from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-02. This would help determine the reliability of the bearish engulfing pattern in predicting downward moves for THETRY or similar assets.