Market Overview for THENA/Turkish Lira (THETRY) on 2025-10-14

• THENA/Turkish Lira (THETRY) declined sharply from $14.708 to $12.10 over 24 hours, closing at $12.411 with high volatility.
• Key support levels tested include $12.30 and $12.10, while resistance appears near $13.30 and $14.50.
• A bearish divergence in volume and price during the late-night selloff suggests increased risk of further downside.
• RSI and MACD confirm weakening momentum with oversold levels reached near the 24-hour close.
• Volatility expanded significantly after a brief contraction near $14.50, as measured by Bollinger Band width.

The 24-hour period from 12:00 ET–1 on 2025-10-13 to 12:00 ET on 2025-10-14 saw THENA/Turkish Lira (THETRY) open at $13.32, peak at $14.708, and close at $12.411 after a significant decline. Total volume reached 5,230,458.0, with a turnover of $62,201,455. The price action reflects strong bearish pressure, particularly during the early morning hours, where volume surged and price collapsed below multiple support levels.

Structure and candlestick patterns over the 15-minute chart revealed a sequence of bearish engulfing patterns, notably at $14.50 and $13.60, confirming the shift in sentiment. A long bearish shadow emerged after the $14.708 high, suggesting failed attempts to retest prior highs. The $12.30–$12.50 range has emerged as a critical support cluster, with a possible short-term bounce expected if buying interest re-emerges.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart showed a rapid downward crossover of the 20-period and 50-period lines, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50- and 200-period moving averages were not clearly defined due to the compressed time window, but the 100-period line acted as a dynamic resistance, which was decisively breached during the selloff. The 15-minute MACD crossed below the zero line and remained negative, while the RSI dipped into oversold territory, suggesting the potential for a near-term pause or consolidation.

Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the decline, particularly after the $14.708 peak, signaling heightened volatility. The price has since fallen well below the lower band, indicating extreme deviation from the mean. Fibonacci retracement levels from the $14.708 high to the $12.10 low suggest key potential reversal levels at 61.8% ($13.28) and 38.2% ($13.73). Volume surged during the selloff but has since normalized, with no clear divergence yet emerging. Investors should watch for volume confirmation on any near-term bounces for signs of sustainability.

Backtest Hypothesis

The back-test for the “Bullish Engulfing / 1-Day Hold” strategy has been executed to assess its viability using historical data from January 1, 2022, through October 14, 2025. This strategy hinges on the appearance of a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern, followed by a one-day holding period for profit capture. The cumulative return, drawdown, and trade log are visualized in an interactive report, offering insights into the strategy’s performance under varying market conditions. While the strategy is promising in controlled environments, it may face limitations in fast-moving or volatile markets like those observed in the recent THETRY selloff. This analysis confirms the utility of candlestick patterns in trading decisions but underscores the need for complementary risk controls and position sizing in live environments.