Market Overview for THENA/Turkish Lira (THETRY) – 2025-10-11

• THENA/Turkish Lira (THETRY) fell from 16.46 to 11.82 in 24 hours, driven by sharp selling in the early evening.
• A major breakdown below 12.50 confirmed bearish momentum, with RSI entering oversold territory.
• Volatility spiked during the selloff but has normalized as the pair consolidates near 11.82.
• A long shadowed bearish engulfing pattern formed at the 16.46 high, signaling short-term bearish bias.
• Turnover reached 13.1M TRY during the selloff, indicating large liquidation pressures and potential exhaustion.

The THENA/Turkish Lira (THETRY) pair opened at 16.27 on October 10, 2025, and traded between 16.46 and 11.79 over the next 24 hours, closing at 11.82 at 12:00 ET on October 11. Total volume amounted to 16.8M units, while turnover hit approximately 13.1M TRY, with the largest liquidation spike occurring in the early evening.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour period saw a sharp breakdown from key resistance at 16.46 to a new support zone near 11.80. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at the 16.46 high, while a long lower shadow in the 11.82–11.83 range suggests a possible short-term bounce. A doji near 11.97 also hints at indecision and potential consolidation.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20- and 50-period moving averages both trended downward, confirming bearish momentum. The 200-period daily MA remains above 13.50, suggesting the 11.82 level could face pressure in the next 24 hours.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative during the selloff, with a bearish crossover confirming the downward move. RSI dropped to 28, indicating oversold conditions, but a reversal is unlikely without a strong volume-based rebound. The oscillator remains near the 30–40 zone, suggesting a consolidation phase is likely.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the selloff, with price dropping below the lower band. The bands have since retracted, and price currently sits near the midline, suggesting a potential mean reversion within the 11.80–12.20 range.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to 1.3M units during the sharp drop to 11.79, aligning with the price collapse. However, volume has since contracted, indicating exhaustion. Turnover confirmed the bearish move, but a divergence between rising price and falling volume near 11.82 could signal a short-term bottom.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying a 15-minute Fibonacci to the 11.79–16.46 swing, key levels at 61.8% (13.33) and 38.2% (14.30) appear to have been rejected. On the daily chart, a 61.8% retracement level at 12.70 may provide near-term resistance if the pair rallies.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy involves entering a short position on a close below the 15-minute 50 EMA, with a stop above the previous swing high and a target at the 61.8% Fibonacci level. This approach would have captured the recent move from 16.46 to 11.79, yielding a 33% return. A trailing stop or partial exit at key support levels like 12.50 or 12.20 could improve risk-adjusted returns.