Market Overview for THENA/Turkish Lira (THETRY) - 2025-10-03

• THENA/Turkish Lira (THETRY) closed 13.9% higher at 18.751, breaking through key resistance after a strong bullish reversal.
• A sharp volume spike of 426,720.3 units accompanied the 15-minute candle reaching 20.094, the highest of the 24-hour period.
• RSI surged into overbought territory, while MACD showed a strong positive divergence, suggesting continued momentum.
• Bollinger Bands widened significantly, indicating rising volatility in the final hours.
• Fibonacci retracements identified 18.5–18.7 as critical short-term support and 19.3–19.7 as resistance.

At 12:00 ET–1 on 2025-10-02, THETRY opened at 17.297 and surged to 20.094 during the session, closing at 18.751 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-03. The 24-hour period recorded a total volume of 5,108,020.5 units and a turnover of $94,482,495.00 (assuming average rate of 18.50). The pair exhibited a sharp upward reversal and volatility expansion.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart shows a powerful bullish reversal pattern, particularly from 19:45–20:00 ET on 2025-10-02, with a strong engulfing candle followed by a long white candle that pierced the upper Bollinger Band. A key resistance was broken at 19.0, confirmed by a high-volume close at 20.094. A notable doji formed at 01:15 ET on 2025-10-03 (18.522), suggesting indecision, but this was quickly followed by a sharp rebound. The key support levels identified were at 18.5–18.7, with a critical resistance range at 19.3–19.7.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs both moved in a strong upward trend, indicating sustained bullish momentum. The 50-period SMA crossed above the 20-period SMA earlier in the session, forming a golden cross. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA is approaching the 100-period SMA from below, signaling a potential bullish crossover. The 200-period SMA remains well below current price levels, reinforcing the uptrend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line remained well above the signal line for most of the 24-hour period, indicating strong bullish momentum. A sharp positive divergence emerged between the MACD and price at the end of the session, suggesting a possible continuation of the upward trend. The RSI moved into overbought territory (above 70) at 06:45 ET on 2025-10-03, staying there for much of the morning, indicating the market is overextended but not yet exhausted. A retest of key support levels could confirm a bearish divergence, but for now, the trend remains strong.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the final hours of the session, with the 20-period price moving well above the upper band. A period of contraction was observed earlier in the 24-hour window (00:15–01:00 ET) that coincided with a consolidation phase. The current wide band width suggests increased volatility and heightened market activity. The price has spent most of the session inside the upper half of the bands, indicating a strong trend.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked dramatically at 06:45 ET when the price reached 20.094, with 426,720.3 units traded—over 8% of the total 24-hour volume. This high volume confirmed the price move and signaled strong conviction. Turnover also surged during this period, aligning with the volume spike. No major divergence was observed between price and volume, indicating a healthy uptrend. The final 15-minute candle of the 24-hour period (10:45 ET) traded at 18.694 with relatively lower volume, suggesting a possible short-term pullback is likely.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 15-minute swing from 17.294 to 20.094, the 38.2% and 61.8% levels corresponded to 18.8 and 19.45, respectively. The price closed just below the 38.2% level, indicating a possible short-term support at 18.7–18.8. On the daily chart, Fibonacci levels for the recent low (17.547) and high (19.35) show key retracements at 18.5 (23.6%) and 18.7 (38.2%), which coincided with the doji and reversal candle, suggesting strong support ahead.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy for THETRY involves combining the 50-period and 20-period SMAs on the 15-minute chart with the RSI and volume confirmation. The strategy would enter long positions when the 20-period SMA crosses above the 50-period SMA (golden cross), RSI is in bullish territory (above 50), and volume is rising. Exit triggers include RSI entering overbought territory (above 75) or a bearish divergence in the MACD. Based on the recent 24-hour data, such a strategy would have entered a long position at 18:30 ET on 2025-10-02 and exited at 07:00 ET on 2025-10-03 with a 12.3% gain. This setup could be backtested over the last 30 days for robustness, with particular attention to false positives in consolidation phases.