Market Overview for THENA/Turkish Lira (THETRY) on 2025-09-27

• THENA/Turkish Lira (THETRY) surged by 20% over 24 hours, driven by strong volume and momentum.
• A bullish engulfing pattern and break of prior resistance confirmed the rally early in the session.
• RSI reached overbought territory, suggesting a potential consolidation phase.
• Volatility expanded with wide-ranging candles and high turnover in the last 4 hours.
• Bollinger Bands show price at the upper band, reflecting aggressive buying pressure.

Opening Summary and Key Metrics

At 12:00 ET – 1 (2025-09-26 12:00 ET), THENA/Turkish Lira (THETRY) opened at 15.162 and closed at 17.646 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-27. The pair hit a high of 19.167 and a low of 15.14 during the 24-hour period. Total volume amounted to 6,404,000.0 with total notional turnover reaching approximately 105,207,644.6 (in Turkish Lira equivalent). The sharp price move was accompanied by a clear increase in volume and momentum, signaling a breakout phase.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart displayed a strong bullish engulfing pattern around 07:45–08:00 ET, as the price moved from 16.452 to 16.956 with heavy volume. This was followed by a continuation of buying pressure and a clear break of prior resistance levels around 17.60–17.80. A doji formed at the peak around 15:00–15:15 ET, hinting at potential exhaustion. Key support levels emerged at 17.20 and 16.95, while the 18.20 level now appears to be the next major resistance after a recent break above it.

Moving Averages and MACD

On the 15-minute chart, the price is well above both the 20 and 50-period moving averages, with a positive divergence in the MACD (12,26,9) indicating sustained bullish momentum. The MACD line has crossed above the signal line, reinforcing the upward trend. On the daily chart, the 50-day EMA is currently at 16.50, while the 200-day SMA sits at 16.15—both are now supportive of the recent move higher. A potential pullback could test the 50–100 EMA crossover at ~17.20.

RSI and Bollinger Bands

The RSI (14) climbed to overbought levels (above 75) by midday, indicating a possible near-term reversal. However, the continued volume and price strength suggest the upmove could extend beyond initial overbought territory. Bollinger Bands have widened significantly, with the upper band reaching ~18.25, and the price currently trading near the upper band. This suggests heightened volatility and bullish continuation potential if the price remains above the mid-band (~17.92). A breakdown below the lower band (~17.40) could signal a correction phase.

Volume & Turnover Analysis

Volume and turnover surged during the last 4 hours of the session, with a total of 2,207,831.9 units traded around 14:15–14:30 ET, confirming the price breakout. Notional turnover during this period hit ~39,855,300, indicating strong buying conviction. A divergence is observed between volume and price during the 15:00–16:00 ET period, as price declined slightly while volume remained high, suggesting a possible consolidation phase ahead. Investors should watch for a drop in volume as a sign of trend exhaustion.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels on the 15-minute chart show the 38.2% retracement at ~17.80 and the 61.8% at ~18.40. The price currently sits near the 38.2% retracement level from the 15.14–19.167 swing. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the larger swing from 15.696–19.167 is at ~17.60, which has now been surpassed. The 18.50 level represents the next potential target for Fibonacci continuation traders.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering long positions on a bullish engulfing pattern breakout, as seen on the 07:45–08:00 ET candle, with a stop-loss placed below the previous swing low of 16.90 and a take-profit at the next Fibonacci level (~18.40). The MACD crossover and RSI divergence provide additional confirmation for this setup. A trailing stop could be initiated at the 17.20 support level if the rally continues. This strategy would benefit from high volume and momentum as seen in the recent 15-minute candles, especially during the late morning and early afternoon ET.