Market Overview for THENA/Turkish Lira (THETRY) on 2025-09-21

• THENA/Turkish Lira surged 62.7% in the last 24 hours, reaching a high of 26.802 at 13:00 ET.
• Volume spiked to 12.07 million contracts during the 13:00–13:15 ET window, confirming bullish momentum.
• RSI peaked near overbought territory, signaling potential exhaustion or consolidation.
• Bollinger Bands expanded during the 6:00–10:00 ET session, reflecting heightened volatility.
• A bearish divergence appeared in the RSI and price near 16:00 ET, hinting at a short-term pullback.

The THENA/Turkish Lira (THETRY) pair opened at 17.215 on 2025-09-20 at 12:00 ET and closed at 24.782 on 2025-09-21 at 12:00 ET, with an intraday high of 26.802 and a low of 16.81. Total volume for the 24-hour period reached 48.03 million contracts, and notional turnover exceeded 1.13 billion Turkish Lira, indicating strong participation and interest in the pair.

Structurally, the pair exhibited a strong bullish trend, breaking through key resistance levels, including the 21.00–22.00 range. A large bullish engulfing pattern formed during the 6:30–6:45 ET window, confirming renewed buyer dominance. A doji at 10:15 ET indicated indecision, but subsequent bullish momentum quickly overcame this hesitation. Support levels formed around 18.50 and 16.80, which held during the initial bearish retracements, reinforcing their importance.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart showed a strong bullish crossover, with the 20-period MA above the 50-period MA, reinforcing upward bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA acted as a dynamic support level, with the price staying well above the 200-period MA, indicating a strong uptrend. The pair remained firmly above the 20-day MA, with no signs of immediate bearish reacceleration.

MACD showed a strong positive divergence in the 6:00–10:00 ET window, confirming the upward breakout. RSI reached overbought territory near 78, suggesting a potential pullback or consolidation. Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the 6:00–10:00 ET session, signaling high volatility and increased momentum. Price consistently closed near the upper band, reinforcing the bullish bias. Fibonacci retracement levels from the 16.80–26.80 swing indicated 61.8% resistance at around 24.30, which the pair briefly tested before moving higher.

Volume and turnover showed a clear bullish confirmation pattern, particularly during the 6:30–7:00 ET and 13:00–13:15 ET windows, when large-volume bullish candles confirmed breakout attempts. A bearish divergence in the 16:00–16:15 ET window raised concerns about short-term resistance, but buyers reasserted control shortly after. The overall volume profile remained skewed to the upside, with a clear concentration in bullish timeframes.

Fibonacci retracements on the 15-minute swings highlighted 24.30 and 24.70 as potential resistance levels. On the daily chart, the 25.50–26.00 zone represents a key psychological and Fibonacci 61.8% resistance area. Price appears poised to test this range in the near term, with a potential continuation or consolidation likely.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtesting strategy involves entering a long position when price breaks above the 20-period MA on the 15-minute chart, with a stop loss placed below the most recent swing low and a take-profit at the Fibonacci 61.8% level. This approach aligns with the observed bullish breakouts and crossovers seen today. Given the recent strong volume and momentum, this strategy appears viable for the next 24 hours, particularly if the 25.50–26.00 resistance is successfully tested and confirmed. However, a bearish reversal during the 16:00–17:00 ET window may challenge its effectiveness.