Market Overview for Tezos/Tether (XTZUSDT): 24-Hour Analysis and Strategy Setup

• XTZUSDT dropped from 0.5812 to 0.5312 amid heavy selling pressure and bearish momentum.
• Price broke key 0.57 support level and tested 0.546–0.554 range for the second time.
• Volatility surged during the 15:30–16:15 ET window with over $500K in notional turnover.
• RSI and MACD suggest oversold conditions, but divergence exists between momentum and price.
• Large bearish engulfing pattern on 0.58–0.5753 suggests further near-term weakness.

Tezos/Tether (XTZUSDT) opened at 0.5690 at 12:00 ET − 1 and fell to a low of 0.5134 before closing at 0.5312 at 12:00 ET. The price recorded a high of 0.5812 during the session, with total volume reaching 1,464,011.1 and a turnover of approximately $753,898. A distinct bearish bias emerged through extended intraday selloffs and key support levels being breached.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart displayed a strong bearish bias, punctuated by a significant bearish engulfing pattern formed between 19:00 and 20:15 ET as price fell from 0.5709 to 0.5669. A 0.5812 high failed to establish a bullish reversal, with the price subsequently breaking the key 0.5700–0.5703 support zone and finding a temporary base between 0.546 and 0.554. A deep 15:30–16:15 ET selloff, which saw the price fall from 0.5381 to 0.5234, suggests a potential 0.51–0.52 floor may be next.

Moving Averages and Key Levels

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both bearishly aligned, with the 50SMA below the 20SMA as of the 12:00 ET close. Daily moving averages (50D, 100D, and 200D) remain unaligned, but the 200D line has acted as a historical resistance zone. Key Fibonacci retracement levels from the 0.5812 high to the 0.5134 low include 0.5440 (38.2%), 0.5285 (50%), and 0.5175 (61.8%).

Momentum, Volatility, and Divergences

RSI (14) moved below 30 and is currently near 32, indicating oversold territory, but this is not accompanied by a bullish divergence. The MACD line is in negative territory, with the histogram expanding during the key selloff from 15:30 to 16:15 ET, suggesting continued bearish momentum. Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the same window, reflecting heightened volatility. A divergence between the RSI and price action near 0.546 suggests caution before expecting a short-term bounce.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish momentum, oversold RSI, and MACD divergence, a backtest strategy based on shorting on the MACD death cross and covering on RSI reaching oversold levels appears worth exploring. With accurate MACD (12,26,9) and RSI (14) data, a backtest from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-03 could provide insights into the strategy's viability during similar market conditions. This approach could be used to validate whether the indicators align with the price action observed in the recent selloff and whether they can offer a reliable signal for future entries and exits.