Market Overview for Tezos/Tether (XTZUSDT) as of 2025-10-06

• XTZ/USDT fell 0.728 to 0.710 over 24 hours, with bearish momentum and a breakdown below key support.
• Price tested 0.710 multiple times, forming potential support consolidation with low volatility.
• Turnover surged near 0.7106–0.7156 range, confirming bearish sentiment and volume-driven declines.
• MACD remained negative, RSI in oversold territory, suggesting possible near-term consolidation.
• Bollinger Bands contracted in late hours, signaling potential for a breakout or continuation move.

Tezos/Tether (XTZUSDT) opened at 0.7304 on 2025-10-05 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.7112 on 2025-10-06 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour range was 0.7327 (high) to 0.705 (low). Total trading volume was 2.17 million, and notional turnover reached 1.52 million USDT, reflecting heightened bearish participation during the price decline.

The candlestick pattern over the 24-hour window shows a strong bearish bias. A key support level at 0.710–0.711 appears to have held multiple times, suggesting potential consolidation or a short-term floor. A long lower wick formed on the 04:15 candle, signaling rejection near 0.7065. The 20- and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart show a steep downward trend, reinforcing the short-term bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50- and 200-period moving averages suggest a medium-term downtrend remains intact.

The MACD remained negative throughout the period, with the histogram shrinking in the final hours, hinting at weakening bearish momentum. RSI dipped into oversold territory near 0.7065, suggesting a potential bounce or consolidation phase near the 0.710–0.714 range. The Bollinger Bands narrowed in the last 6 hours, indicating a possible breakout or continuation. Price currently sits near the lower band, a bearish sign unless volume increases with a reversal candle.

Fibonacci retracement levels on the recent 15-minute swing (0.7327–0.705) show 0.7106 at 38.2% and 0.7083 at 61.8%, with price currently hovering near the 38.2% level. This suggests potential for a bounce or consolidation. On the daily chart, if the pair breaks below 0.7083, a retest of the 0.705 level could follow. Divergence between price and volume was notable as the price fell below 0.7156—the volume spiked but failed to confirm a strong bearish move, indicating a potential short-term pause.

Backtest Hypothesis
The described backtesting strategy utilizes a combination of RSI divergence and Fibonacci retracements to identify potential reversal entry points. In this case, the RSI dipping into oversold territory around 0.7065 and the price stabilizing near the 38.2% retracement level (0.7106) align with the strategy's entry conditions. A potential long setup could be triggered if the price closes above 0.7135 with a bullish candle and a RSI crossover above 50. This would suggest a short-term reversal, aligning with the hypothesis. However, given the strong bearish volume in the 0.7106–0.7156 range and the 50-period MA remaining below the 20-period MA, the bearish bias is still intact for the immediate future.