Market Overview for Tezos/Tether (XTZUSDT) – 2025-10-03

• Price action shows a bullish bias with a late-day rally above 0.7115.
• RSI and MACD confirm positive momentum into the final hours of the 24-hour period.
• Volatility picked up with a high volume candle on October 3 at 05:00 ET, pushing the price to a high of 0.7182.
• Turnover spiked at key support and resistance levels, indicating active institutional and retail participation.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed around 0.7105–0.7125, suggesting a potential breakout above key resistance.

XTZUSDT opened at 0.6975 on October 2, hit a high of 0.7182, and closed at 0.7188 on October 3 at 12:00 ET. Total traded volume was 1,204,509.4 units, with notional turnover of $847,343.6. The price showed a strong upward bias, particularly in the latter half of the 24-hour period.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart showed a clear bullish structure as price broke out of a tight consolidation range around 0.7105–0.7125. Key support levels were identified at 0.7082 and 0.7056, while resistance levels at 0.7125 and 0.7143 were successfully tested and retested. A bullish engulfing pattern formed at 0.7105–0.7125, which appears to have confirmed a breakout to the upside. A doji near 0.7133 also indicated a possible reversal or consolidation ahead.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA was bullish as the price closed above both the 20 and 50-period MAs, signaling momentum toward the upper end of the range. The 50-period MA crossed above the 20-period MA late in the session, confirming a short-term bullish trend. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is positioned slightly below the 100 and 200-period MAs, suggesting a longer-term neutral to slightly bearish bias, but the recent move up may be creating a bullish divergence.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned positive during the late evening and remained so until the close, with both the histogram and signal line confirming strength in the upward move. RSI reached a peak near 60, indicating strong momentum but not overbought conditions, suggesting room for further appreciation. RSI did not show any significant bearish divergences during the session, reinforcing the bullish narrative.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands were relatively wide during the session, indicating elevated volatility. The price spent the majority of the day above the 20-period moving average and remained outside the upper band during the late hours of the session. This suggests increased buying pressure and the possibility of a continuation of the bullish trend if the price remains above 0.7188.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was generally aligned with price direction, with large volume spikes observed during the 05:00 ET and 05:30 ET candles on October 3. Notional turnover increased in line with volume, with the highest turnover occurring at 0.7164–0.7182 during the 05:00–06:00 ET window. Price and turnover were in sync, indicating no bearish divergence and confirming the strength of the move higher.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent 15-minute swing from 0.7042 to 0.7161, the price found key support at 38.2% (0.7111) and tested the 61.8% level (0.7135). The 0.7188 close was above the 61.8% level, suggesting the next target could be the 78.6% retracement at 0.7168–0.7170. If the trend continues, the 100% level at 0.7182 may become a key resistance for the next few hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described involves a long-only approach triggered by the RSI crossing above 40 with a bullish engulfing pattern on the 15-minute chart, while the price remains above the 50-period MA. The strategy would exit the trade if RSI falls back below 50 or the price breaks below the 20-period MA. Given today’s data, this strategy would have triggered a buy near 0.7105 and exited near 0.7188, yielding a gain of approximately 1.1%. This aligns with the technical indicators discussed, particularly the RSI and MA crossovers. The next key price levels to watch for confirmation would be 0.7188 and 0.7213.