Market Overview for Tether/Zloty (USDTPLN): Strong Recovery and Rising Momentum

• Tether/Zloty (USDTPLN) closed 0.16% higher at 3.638, showing bullish momentum after a sharp intraday recovery.
• A bearish breakdown to 3.600 was rejected, with a decisive 15-minute rebound forming a potential bullish engulfing pattern.
• Volatility expanded sharply, with a 2.5% range observed, driven by strong volume surges during the early morning UTC session.
• RSI climbed into overbought territory near 70, suggesting possible near-term exhaustion, while MACD remained bullish with a rising histogram.
• Notional turnover increased 5x above average during a key 90-minute rally, offering strong confirmation of the upward move.

Tether/Zloty (USDTPLN) opened at 3.620 on 2025-10-06 at 12:00 ET and closed at 3.638 on 2025-10-07 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 3.642 and a low of 3.580. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 435,770.0 units, with notional turnover amounting to approximately PLN 1,413,367. The pair demonstrated a strong reversal from intraday lows and showed signs of bullish momentum as buyers stepped in to defend key support levels.

The price structure over the last 24 hours revealed a well-defined support cluster forming around 3.600–3.607, which was tested multiple times. A key 15-minute candle on 2025-10-06 at 19:15 UTC formed a bullish engulfing pattern, confirming a reversal from a 2.5% intraday decline. Resistance levels emerged around 3.634–3.638, with a failed breakout attempt and a subsequent retest on 2025-10-07 at 15:00 UTC. The price appears to have found a temporary equilibrium near 3.635–3.638, with a possible bullish continuation into 3.642.

The 15-minute chart shows the 20- and 50-period moving averages converging into a bullish crossover, with the 50-line acting as dynamic support around 3.625–3.630. The daily chart, while not explicitly shown, would likely show the 50- and 200-period MAs in a bullish alignment, supporting the continuation of the recent upward trend. The MACD remains positive with a rising histogram, indicating strengthening momentum. RSI has entered overbought territory near 70, suggesting a potential pullback may be due, though not necessarily a bearish reversal.

Bollinger Bands have widened significantly during the bounce from 3.600, reflecting increased volatility and trader participation. The price has closed just inside the upper band on multiple occasions, which could act as a trigger for further consolidation or a breakout attempt. A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the recent low to high (3.580 to 3.642) is currently around 3.624, a level that appears to have been respected multiple times over the past 24 hours. The price may test this level again in the near term as a key psychological and technical threshold.

Backtest Hypothesis
The observed 15-minute bullish engulfing pattern and the RSI’s overbought condition suggest a potential short-term correction may follow. A backtest strategy could target a sell entry on a retest of the 3.624–3.630 range with a stop below 3.600 and a first target at 3.638–3.642. A long bias remains for traders expecting the 3.642 level to hold as a new support, with a target above 3.650. The strategy would benefit from filtering on increasing volume during the breakout phase and RSI divergence as a confirmation signal.