Market Overview for Tether/Zloty (USDTPLN): October 6, 2025

• USDTPLN rallied from 3.56 to 3.63 in 24 hours, with a late morning peak at 3.633 before consolidation.
• High volume surges occurred in the overnight to early morning, especially between 03:15 and 05:00 ET.
• RSI and MACD indicated moderate overbought levels by midday, suggesting potential short-term pullback.
• Price remained above key 3.611 support and tested 3.626 resistance, with no decisive break yet.
• Volatility was moderate, with Bollinger Bands expanding during price acceleration but not to extreme levels.

24-Hour Price Action

Tether/Zloty (USDTPLN) opened at 3.586 on October 5, 2025, and closed at 3.627 on October 6 at 12:00 ET, reaching an intraday high of 3.633 and a low of 3.541. The 24-hour trading volume was 336,839.0 units, and the notional turnover (amount) totaled 166,504.0 PLN. The price action displayed a strong bullish bias in the early hours, followed by consolidation in the afternoon, suggesting potential exhaustion of momentum in the short term.

Structure & Formations

The price action formed a series of bullish engulfing patterns between 01:15 and 03:15 ET as USDTPLN surged from 3.541 to 3.605. A key support level was established around 3.611, where the price found a floor following a sharp drop around 00:30–01:00 ET. A notable bearish reversal candle appeared at 11:45 ET, which could signal a potential pause in the upward trend. A strong resistance level was seen at 3.626–3.629, with mixed behavior on attempted retests.

Technical Indicators

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart indicated a bullish crossover, with the 20-period line above the 50-period line throughout the session. The MACD line crossed above the signal line around 02:00 ET, confirming the bullish momentum. RSI climbed to 61.8–70 levels by midday, suggesting the pair may be overbought. Bollinger Bands showed moderate widening during the early price acceleration but remained relatively stable during consolidation, indicating a balance between buyers and sellers.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was a key driver of the morning rally, with the largest single 15-minute candle occurring at 03:15 ET, where 4,188 units were traded at 3.609. Turnover also spiked during this period, confirming the bullish conviction. In contrast, the volume during the afternoon consolidation was lower, with several candles showing reduced trading activity, indicating a cooling in aggressive buying. Divergence was observed around 10:45–11:15 ET, where price pushed higher but volume remained flat, hinting at potential exhaustion.

Fibonacci Retracements

Using the key swing from 3.541 to 3.633, the 38.2% and 61.8% retracement levels corresponded to 3.591 and 3.617, respectively. Price found support at 3.611, close to the 61.8% level, suggesting a potential floor for the near term. The 3.626–3.629 range overlaps with the 61.8%–76.4% extension zone, making it a probable target for consolidation or a short-term reversal.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described focuses on capturing momentum-driven rallies using a combination of RSI overbought levels and bullish engulfing candlestick patterns as entry triggers, with tight stop-loss orders placed just below key support levels. The recent price action in USDTPLN aligns well with this strategy, especially during the 01:15–03:15 ET period, where both RSI and candlestick formations confirmed a strong bullish signal. However, the bearish divergence observed in the afternoon highlights the importance of trailing stop-loss placement in such strategies. Future iterations could incorporate volatility-based scaling of position sizes based on Bollinger Band width to better manage risk during periods of consolidation.