Market Overview for Tether/Zloty (USDTPLN) – October 13, 2025

• Tether/Zloty (USDTPLN) closed slightly higher after consolidating near key support levels late in the 24-hour window.
• Volatility dipped below 50-basis points, but volume surged in the overnight hours, suggesting renewed interest.
• RSI hovered near neutral territory, with no clear overbought or oversold signals.
• Bollinger Bands narrowed mid-session, indicating a potential breakout or consolidation ahead.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed near 3.690, hinting at possible short-term buying momentum.

The Tether/Zloty (USDTPLN) pair opened at 3.739 on October 12 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 3.749 before dipping to a low of 3.684 during the 24-hour period. It closed at 3.705 at 12:00 ET on October 13. Total volume across the 24-hour window was approximately 412,367 units, with notional turnover reaching roughly 1,485,787 Zloty. The price action reflected a slow descent toward a key psychological level of 3.700, which was retested and bounced off twice during the session.

Structurally, USDTPLN displayed a bearish bias through the first half of the period, with a series of lower highs and lower lows forming a descending pattern. A notable bullish engulfing pattern emerged around 02:15 AM ET, where a small bearish candle was overtaken by a larger bullish one, indicating potential buying pressure. The price also found support near the 3.690 zone, which appears to have become a short-term floor. Resistance levels emerged at 3.720 and 3.735, both of which were tested twice without strong follow-through.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart both trended downward, with the 20-period line crossing below the 50-period line in a bearish signal. However, the daily 50-period MA showed a flatter trajectory, suggesting a potential slowdown in the downward momentum. The MACD remained in negative territory with a narrowing histogram, pointing to weakening bearish momentum. RSI fluctuated between 40 and 60, with no overbought or oversold levels being reached. This indicates a neutral market sentiment for the past 24 hours.

Bollinger Bands showed a contraction mid-session, particularly between 03:00 and 04:00 AM ET, indicating a period of low volatility. Price then moved to retest the lower band before bouncing upward, suggesting a temporary equilibrium might have been forming. Volume spiked between 02:15 AM and 04:30 AM ET, coinciding with the support bounce and confirming the strength of the 3.690 level. However, this buying pressure was short-lived, and prices began drifting lower again by 06:00 AM. A Fibonacci retrace level at 3.695 appeared to be acting as a minor resistance during the retest, with the price failing to close above this level on multiple occasions.

The market appears to be caught in a tug-of-war between short-term bearish exhaustion and cautious buying support around the 3.690 level. For the next 24 hours, a break above 3.715 could signal a shift in sentiment, but a retest of the 3.680 level may occur if bearish momentum regains strength. Investors should remain cautious of volume divergences and watch for any signs of a potential breakout.

Backtest Hypothesis

In light of the neutral RSI behavior observed in USDTPLN, a potential backtest strategy could involve identifying overbought/oversold levels using the RSI(14). Given that RSI stayed within 40–60, the market has not shown strong directional bias, but an RSI-based trading strategy could be applied to test buy/sell signals. For example, a long signal could be triggered when RSI falls below 30 (oversold), with a 5-day hold period. Historical data for the RSI(14) will be calculated, and backtesting will be conducted from January 1, 2022, to October 13, 2025, to evaluate the viability of this approach. If the data for USDTPLN proves unavailable, alternative price series (e.g., USDT/PLN on Binance or Kraken) could be used to simulate the strategy. A proper data source or symbol format is required to proceed.