Market Overview for Tether/Zloty (USDTPLN)

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• USDTPLN opened at 3.606 and closed at 3.621, reaching 3.631 and dipping to 3.599 within the 24-hour window.
• A late-night consolidation phase followed a sharp early-morning rally driven by high-volume moves in the 6:00–9:00 ET timeframe.
• Volatility expanded in the early morning, with a high of 3.631 before settling into a narrow range post 11:00 ET.
• RSI remained neutral, suggesting moderate momentum, while volume diverged from price in the 5:00–6:00 ET range.

Opening and Price Action

Tether/Zloty (USDTPLN) opened at 3.606 on 2025-09-18 at 12:00 ET and closed at 3.621 on 2025-09-19 at 12:00 ET, with a 24-hour high of 3.631 and a low of 3.599. The pair experienced a total trading volume of 129,836.0 and a notional turnover of 461,972.0 PLN during the period. The price action featured a morning upsurge and late-day consolidation, with key resistance and support levels emerging around 3.61 and 3.605.

Support and Resistance

A strong support level appears to form around 3.603–3.605, which held during multiple attempts to break below it. Resistance was encountered near 3.615–3.617, particularly in the 10:00–11:00 ET timeframe. Notable candlestick patterns include a bullish engulfing pattern at the 8:00–9:00 ET period and a bearish harami near 19:00–19:30 ET, signaling potential reversal points.

Momentum and Indicators

The 20-period EMA (15-min chart) crossed above the 50-period EMA, indicating bullish momentum. RSI hovered between 50 and 60, suggesting a neutral to moderately bullish environment. MACD remained above zero, reinforcing the uptrend. The 50-period daily SMA may be forming a key psychological level for the market ahead.

Volatility and Bollinger Bands

Price action during the morning of 2025-09-19 saw a significant expansion in Bollinger Band width, indicating rising volatility. The price frequently touched the upper band between 8:00–9:00 ET, a sign of strong buying pressure. In the late morning, the bands narrowed, suggesting a potential consolidation or reversal phase ahead. The 3.62 level remains key for near-term volatility control.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 3.599–3.631 swing from 2025-09-18 16:00–2025-09-19 9:00 ET, the 38.2% retracement level at 3.618 and the 61.8% at 3.606 appear to be key pivots. Price action suggests that 3.618 could act as a potential support-turned-resistance during the next downward retracement.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy would involve entering long positions when price breaks above the 20-period EMA on the 15-min chart and exits below the 50-period EMA, with stop-loss placed below the most recent 61.8% Fibonacci support. Given the recent volatility and RSI neutrality, this strategy could have yielded moderate gains during the early-morning rally. However, volume divergence in the 5:00–6:00 ET range highlights the need for caution in using EMA crossovers in low-liquidity environments.