Market Overview: Tether/Zloty (USDTPLN) 24-Hour Technical Analysis

• Price fluctuated within a tight range near 3.657–3.662, consolidating after a morning rally.
• Morning volume surged with a 24,147 PLN turnover candle, indicating potential breakout interest.
• Evening trend reversed with lower highs and declining volume, hinting at profit-taking.
• RSI and MACD showed neutral momentum, with no clear overbought or oversold signals.
• Bollinger Bands compressed during consolidation, signaling potential volatility breakout.

Tether/Zloty (USDTPLN) opened at 3.659 on 2025-10-21 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 3.666, and closed at 3.648 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-22. The 24-hour volume amounted to 295,645 PLN, with a total notional turnover of approximately 929,007 Zloty.

Price action over the 24-hour window showed a distinct consolidation phase during the day, followed by a pullback in the afternoon. A key 15-minute candle at 17:15 ET posted a high of 3.668, which became a short-term resistance. Price struggled to hold this level, with a bearish reversal forming as volume declined in the following candles. The formation of a potential bearish engulfing pattern at 3.668–3.661 in the late afternoon indicated a shift in sentiment.

The 15-minute 20-period and 50-period moving averages showed price hovering just above the 50SMA, with the 20SMA acting as dynamic support. MACD remained in neutral territory, with no clear histogram divergence, while RSI oscillated between 45 and 55, suggesting balanced buying and selling pressure. Bollinger Bands narrowed during the consolidation phase, with price eventually breaking down to the lower band in the late afternoon, signaling a potential resumption of bearish momentum.

Fibonacci retracement levels were applied to the 3.649–3.668 swing, revealing key psychological levels at 3.657 (38.2%) and 3.653 (61.8%). The price found support at both levels temporarily but ultimately failed to hold. Volume and turnover showed divergence after the 3.668 high, with volume declining as price continued to fall, suggesting a weakening of the bullish thesis.

Backtest Hypothesis
The “Bullish Engulfing” candlestick pattern is often used by traders to identify potential reversal setups. For USDTPLN, while no such pattern was identified in the given 24-hour dataset, the candle at 17:15 ET (high: 3.668, close: 3.661) and the subsequent bearish engulfing at 18:30 ET (open: 3.656, close: 3.655) suggest the potential for a similar pattern in the opposite direction. A backtest strategy could test the performance of a 3-day holding period after the formation of such bearish engulfing patterns. Given the data, one could look for similar patterns in a broader historical dataset to evaluate if they yield statistically significant returns. This could help assess the utility of such candlestick signals in the Tether/Zloty pair, which, due to its stability, often reflects broader market sentiment in fiat-linked assets.