Market Overview: Tether/Zloty (USDTPLN) 24-Hour Summary

Summary
• Price opened at 3.636 and climbed to 3.656 before closing at 3.65.
• Strong accumulation between 18:45 ET and 06:45 ET pushed price 0.8% higher.
• Volume surged to 93,042 PLN at 18:45 ET, supporting the upward move.
• RSI and MACD showed rising momentum, but price failed to sustain above 3.653.
• Volatility expanded, with Bollinger Bands widening as price approached key resistance.

Tether/Zloty (USDTPLN) opened at 3.636 on 2025-11-13 at 12:00 ET and closed at 3.650 on 2025-11-14 at 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of 3.656 and a low of 3.632 during the 24-hour period. Total volume traded was 533,867.0 PLN, with a total turnover of approximately 1,944,365.8 PLN, based on the close prices for each interval.

The price action displayed a clear bullish bias, with a key support level forming near 3.644–3.646 and resistance at 3.653–3.655. A series of bullish engulfing patterns formed from 18:45 ET to 20:15 ET, confirming short-term strength. A bearish divergence in volume appeared as price neared 3.655, suggesting consolidation ahead. The 20-period EMA on the 15-minute chart crossed above the 50-period EMA early in the session, supporting the bullish momentum.

Bollinger Bands reflected increasing volatility throughout the session, with price testing the upper band at 3.656 before retreating. RSI climbed above 50, reaching 58 at the close, indicating moderate strength without entering overbought territory. MACD turned positive around 19:00 ET, forming a bullish crossover and confirming the uptrend. Fibonacci retracement levels of 3.648 (61.8%) and 3.653 (78.6%) served as dynamic targets during the rally.

The pattern of accumulation near 3.653 suggests a potential pullback may be imminent, with a retest of 3.650–3.651 likely. A breakdown below 3.644 could trigger a test of the 3.640–3.642 zone, while a sustained close above 3.655 may confirm the next leg higher. Traders should monitor volume for confirmation of either scenario.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtested strategy relied on the Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern to enter long positions on USDTPLN at close, with an exit on the next-day close. Over four years of data from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-14, the strategy returned a cumulative –2.61%, or –0.70% annually, with a Sharpe ratio of –0.88 and a maximum drawdown of 3%. The results suggest that the pattern did not provide a statistically significant edge on this pair under the tested conditions. This outcome aligns with the current market behavior, where volume divergences and consolidation at key resistance levels indicate caution. Adjustments such as adding a stop-loss, extending the holding period, or incorporating additional filters (e.g., RSI or volume criteria) could potentially improve the strategy’s performance.