Market Overview: Tether/Zloty (USDTPLN) on 2025-09-11

• Price surged ~0.73% in 24h, closing above key psychological level at 3.632.
• Volatility and volume both increased, particularly after 05:00 ET with sharp rally to 3.644.
• RSI showed overbought levels in late morning, hinting at possible near-term correction.
• Bollinger Bands widened following 06:00 ET breakout, confirming trend strength.
• Downturn post 12:15 ET suggests potential bearish exhaustion at 3.64–3.644 highs.

Tether/Zloty (USDTPLN) opened at 3.628 on 2025-09-10 at 12:00 ET and rose to a 24-hour high of 3.644 before closing at 3.644 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-11. Total traded volume amounted to ~133,173 Zloty, while notional turnover reached ~485,243 PLN. The pair showed a bullish bias during the overnight Asian and European hours, with consolidation pressure emerging in the late morning.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick structure revealed a strong bullish engulfing pattern around 05:45–06:00 ET, as the price moved from 3.633 to 3.642 in a single 15-minute interval. Following that, the price consolidated between 3.638 and 3.644 with a narrow range, suggesting accumulation behavior. A long lower shadow appeared after 12:45 ET, signaling resistance at 3.635–3.640. Support levels to monitor include 3.630 (psychological), 3.625, and 3.620, with the 3.630–3.635 zone likely to hold in the short term if volume remains consistent.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA and 50-period MA were bullish with a steep upward slope, indicating strong near-term momentum. The 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA, forming a classic golden cross. The RSI reached overbought territory (above 70) in the early morning before retreating, while the MACD showed a positive divergence, with the histogram expanding to the right, implying sustained buying pressure.

Volatility, Bollinger Bands, and Fibonacci Retracements

Bollinger Bands expanded following the 06:00 ET breakout, confirming the breakout move. Price remained near the upper band until 12:45 ET, at which point it moved lower and crossed the midband. The 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracements from the 05:30–06:00 ET move align closely with 3.635 and 3.623, respectively, which appear to be key levels for near-term price action.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent formation of a bullish engulfing pattern and strong RSI divergence, a potential short-term trend-following strategy could be tested using a 15-minute time frame. This strategy could involve entering long at a breakout above 3.635 with a stop loss below 3.625 and a target near 3.650, leveraging the momentum seen in the moving averages and Bollinger Bands.

Forward-looking, USDTPLN appears poised to test 3.650 as a key resistance level in the next 24 hours, with the potential for further bullish extension if volume continues to confirm the move. However, a break below 3.630 could initiate a correction, so investors should remain cautious and watch for divergence in the RSI and volume during consolidation periods.