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• Tether USDt traded in a tight range before breaking out to fresh 24-hour highs near 18.71 MXN amid strong volume in the overnight session.
• A bullish engulfing pattern emerged between 06:15 and 06:45 ET as buyers pushed price 2.2% higher with strong follow-through.
• Volatility surged in the final 4 hours, expanding from a 0.08 MXN range to over 0.11 MXN, suggesting a potential reversal in sentiment.
• Turnover spiked during the final 2 hours as price dipped below 18.65 MXN, indicating increased interest at key support levels.
• RSI and MACD diverged slightly late in the session, signaling a potential slowdown in bullish momentum.
Tether USDt (USDTMXN) opened at 18.63 MXN on 2025-08-24 12:00 ET and reached a 24-hour high of 18.71 MXN. The pair traded as low as 18.59 MXN and closed at 18.67 MXN as of 12:00 ET on 2025-08-25. Total volume over the period amounted to 386,219.0 units, while notional turnover reached approximately 7,125,153 MXN.
Price action showed a tight consolidation phase until 06:00 ET, after which a clear bullish breakout emerged with the formation of a bullish engulfing candle at the start of the upward leg. The breakout was confirmed by a follow-through candle with high volume. A doji formed near 18.71 MXN at 08:15 ET, indicating hesitation in the short term. Key support levels appear to have been 18.65 MXN and 18.62 MXN, both of which held during late-session selling.
The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed in favor of the bulls during the early morning session, reinforcing the breakout. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA remains above the 100- and 200-period MAs, indicating a still-bullish bias for the broader trend, albeit with signs of fatigue in the short term.
The MACD turned positive and remained above the zero line during the breakout and early morning rally, while RSI climbed above 55 before retreating slightly in the final 2 hours. However, RSI divergence emerged late in the session as price fell toward 18.65 MXN despite the indicator failing to confirm the move with a corresponding decline. This may signal a temporary pause in the rally or a test of support.
Volatility increased significantly during the final 4 hours of the session, with the upper band expanding to accommodate the 18.71 MXN high. Price closed near the midline of the bands, suggesting a potential pullback toward the lower band at 18.62 MXN could be in play. The bands had contracted earlier in the session, indicating a period of consolidation prior to the breakout.
Volume spiked during the breakout and again in the final 2 hours of the session, confirming both the upside move and the attempted pullback. Turnover mirrored volume closely, with the largest notional value transacted during the 15:15–15:45 ET time window as price fluctuated near key levels. No significant price-turnover divergence was observed, suggesting strong alignment between volume and directional bias.
Applying Fibonacci levels to the 15-minute swing from 18.59 MXN to 18.71 MXN, price currently sits near the 61.8% retracement level at 18.65 MXN, which coincides with a key support level. If the trend continues, a test of the 78.6% level at 18.68 MXN may be expected, though a breakdown below 18.62 MXN could bring the 38.2% level into play as a short-term floor.
In the next 24 hours, traders may see further consolidation around 18.65–18.68 MXN as the market digests recent momentum. A sustained break above 18.71 MXN could indicate a resumption of the bullish phase, while a confirmed breakdown below 18.62 MXN may signal a potential reversal or deeper pullback. Investors should remain cautious as overbought conditions and divergences hint at a possible correction in the near term.
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