Market Overview for Tether/Mexican Peso (USDTMXN) – October 9, 2025

• Price range today: 18.35 to 18.43
• Consolidation mid-day, followed by a late rally above 18.40
• MACD neutral, RSI showing no extremes
• High volume in late ET session, indicating renewed interest
• Volatility increased during final 15-minute candles

Tether/Mexican Peso (USDTMXN) opened at 18.38 on October 8 at 12:00 ET and traded between 18.35 and 18.43 over the past 24 hours, closing at 18.42 as of 12:00 ET on October 9. Total trading volume reached 527,491.0 units with a notional turnover of 9,712,033.0 MXN.

In the 15-minute OHLCV data, the pair showed a pattern of consolidation for most of the day, followed by a sharp upward move in the late Eastern Time session. The price rallied from 18.40 to 18.43 in the last two candlesticks, suggesting renewed buyer interest. Key support levels appear around 18.37–18.38, while resistance is forming at 18.41–18.43. A bullish engulfing pattern is visible during the final 30 minutes of trading, indicating a short-term reversal in sentiment.

Structure & Formations

Price action displayed a range-bound pattern for most of the day, with consolidation between 18.37 and 18.39. A breakout occurred in the late session, with a strong bullish engulfing pattern confirming the upward shift. A small doji formed around 18.38 in the early session, hinting at indecision before the final upward push.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average (MA) and 50-period MA crossed above 18.38, aligning with the upward breakout. On a daily basis, the 50 and 200-period MAs are likely to provide support and resistance around 18.37 and 18.41, respectively. Price is currently above both MAs on the 15-minute timeframe, suggesting a potential continuation of the short-term uptrend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a flat to slightly positive signal during the day, with no strong momentum detected in the morning. In the final 30 minutes, the MACD line crossed above the signal line, confirming the bullish bias. The RSI remained in neutral territory (around 50–55), indicating no overbought or oversold conditions. This suggests that the rally could have room to continue, provided volume remains strong.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded slightly in the late session, with the bands widening as price broke out of the 18.37–18.39 range. Price closed near the upper band at 18.43, suggesting overbought conditions are forming. A contraction in the bands occurred earlier in the day, which could have been a prelude to the breakout.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume increased sharply in the last 30 minutes of the 24-hour window, with the final two candles showing the highest volumes of the day (31,004 and 19,693 units, respectively). Notional turnover also spiked in these periods, confirming the strength of the price action. A divergence between volume and price has not yet been observed, so the move appears to be supported by real liquidity.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 15-minute swings shows 18.40 as a key 38.2% retracement level, which was tested and broken. The 61.8% level at 18.41–18.42 was also tested and confirmed as a short-term resistance. These levels align with recent price behavior and could provide potential entry or exit points for traders.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the presence of a bullish engulfing pattern and the confirmation by strong volume and MACD, a backtest strategy could focus on entering long positions on a breakout above 18.40, with a stop-loss placed below 18.37. This aligns with the technical indicators showing positive momentum. Traders could target the 18.42–18.43 range as a short-term profit level, with a trailing stop to lock in gains if the rally continues. The use of Bollinger Bands and RSI as overbought signals could provide additional timing cues.