Market Overview: Tether/Mexican Peso (USDTMXN) - October 3, 2025

• Price dipped to a 24-hour low of 18.40 before stabilizing near 18.43 at 12:00 ET.
• Momentum slowed toward the end, with RSI near mid-range suggesting consolidation.
• Volatility expanded in early morning ET, followed by a contraction post 08:00 ET.
• Notional turnover rose sharply around 15:45 ET with a large 15-minute candle.
• No strong reversal patterns formed, but a bullish engulfing pattern is visible near 18.45-18.46.

Opening Snapshot and Price Action

The Tether/Mexican Peso pair (USDTMXN) opened at 18.53 at 12:00 ET–1 and reached a high of 18.54 before declining to a 24-hour low of 18.40 at 15:45 ET. The pair closed at 18.43 at 12:00 ET. Total traded volume was approximately 691,641.0 units, with a notional turnover of roughly 12,797,400 MXN across the 24-hour window.

Structure & Formations

The price action over the last 24 hours displayed a bearish bias from 18.54 to 18.40 before stabilizing. Key support levels were formed near 18.45 and 18.40, with the 18.40 level acting as a strong short-term floor. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged around 18.45–18.46, suggesting a potential reversal if the price holds above that level. A doji was also visible near 18.43, signaling indecision in the market.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages indicated a bearish bias in the morning, with the 20 MA below the 50 MA. However, by the afternoon, the 20 MA crossed back above the 50 MA, forming a potential short-term bullish crossover. On a daily timeframe, the 50/100/200-period moving averages were closely aligned, suggesting a flat trend with no strong directional momentum.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line in the morning, confirming bearish momentum. However, by midday, the MACD started to stabilize and even turned upward slightly, hinting at a potential short-term recovery. The RSI hovered around the 50 level for most of the day, indicating a lack of strong overbought or oversold conditions and suggesting consolidation. A minor dip near 45 in the evening may have signaled a potential oversold condition but did not trigger a strong rebound.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility spiked in the early morning, with the Bollinger Bands widening significantly as the price fell toward 18.40. Following this, the bands began to contract, indicating a reduction in volatility and a potential consolidation phase. The price remained near the middle band for most of the afternoon, suggesting a lack of strong directional bias. If the price breaks above the upper band, it could signal a short-term reversal.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged in the early morning hours, particularly during the 00:15–00:30 ET timeframe, coinciding with the price drop to 18.40. This spike in volume confirmed the bearish move, while subsequent lower volumes after 08:00 ET suggested a period of consolidation. Notional turnover mirrored this pattern, with a large spike during the low-point candle at 15:45 ET before tapering off.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent 15-minute swing from 18.54 to 18.40, the price found support at the 61.8% level (18.45) and again at the 100% level (18.40). These levels may serve as key psychological barriers for potential reversals. On the daily chart, no clear Fibonacci structure emerged due to the flat trend, but the 18.45–18.46 range appeared to be a key consolidation zone.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed price structure and indicator behavior, a potential backtest strategy could involve a short-term reversal trade around the 18.45–18.46 zone, where a bullish engulfing pattern and doji indicated indecision and potential reversal. Entering long at 18.45 with a stop loss at 18.42 and a take profit at 18.49–18.50 could be tested. This approach would align with the RSI and MACD signals of a possible short-term recovery, while respecting the Bollinger Band structure and Fibonacci support levels. The strategy could be backtested across multiple 15-minute candles over a 1-week period to validate its consistency and risk-adjusted returns.