Market Overview: Tether/Mexican Peso (USDTMXN) – 24-Hour Technical Snapshot

• Price traded in a tight range for most of the day, with a sharp rally at the close.
• Momentum picked up after 02:00 ET, pushing prices past key resistance levels.
• Volume surged at the close, confirming the breakout to a new 24-hour high.
• Bollinger Bands show low volatility early, followed by a breakout expansion.
• RSI edged into overbought territory, suggesting potential short-term correction.

The Tether/Mexican Peso (USDTMXN) opened at 18.37 on 2025-09-18 at 12:00 ET and closed at 18.45 on 2025-09-19 at 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of 18.50 and a low of 18.35 over the 24-hour period. Total volume traded was approximately 232,263 units, with a notional turnover of 4,328,493 MXN. The final 15-minute candle showed a decisive bearish reversal as the price surged and closed at 18.45.

Price action for the day suggests a consolidation phase in the morning before a strong breakout toward the close. Support levels formed near 18.38–18.40 were successfully tested multiple times, but a breakout above 18.41 signaled renewed bullish momentum. Resistance at 18.50 was reached only once near the end of the day and failed to hold, indicating that further upside is possible.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart remained close to each other, suggesting a lack of strong directional bias early in the session. However, the 50-period MA crossed above the 20-period MA near 02:00 ET, a bullish crossover that coincided with a sharp price increase. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is above the 200-period MA, indicating a longer-term positive trend.

The MACD showed a bullish crossover at 02:00 ET, and the histogram remained positive for the remainder of the session. The RSI peaked at 72 in the final candle, indicating the pair may be approaching overbought territory, which could trigger short-term profit-taking. Bollinger Bands showed a tight squeeze in the early hours before expanding sharply at the breakout, suggesting increased volatility and a likely continuation of the move higher.

Volume and turnover spiked in the final 4 hours, particularly between 08:00 and 12:00 ET, with the last 15-minute candle showing the highest volume of the day at 5061 units. This suggests strong buying interest in the final stretch. No major price-volume divergences were observed, as higher prices were supported by increased turnover, reinforcing the validity of the breakout.

Key Fibonacci retracement levels (38.2% and 61.8%) for the recent 15-minute swing from 18.35 to 18.50 are at 18.43 and 18.41, respectively. The close at 18.45 is above both levels, indicating strong bullish momentum. On a daily chart, retracement levels from the recent weekly swing would need additional data for precise calculation.

The backtest strategy provided is based on a bullish breakout confirmation using the 20-period and 50-period moving averages on a 15-minute chart. The strategy enters long when the 20-period MA crosses above the 50-period MA and holds the position for 30 minutes or until a stop-loss is hit. Given the data for USDTMXN, the crossover occurred at 02:00 ET and held for the remainder of the session. If this strategy had been applied, the trade would have captured the final surge to 18.45, yielding a potential return of ~0.82% within the 30-minute window.