Market Overview: Tether/Mexican Peso (USDTMXN) 24-Hour Analysis

• Price opened at 18.99 and closed at 18.94, with a high of 19.15 and a low of 18.75.
• A sharp bearish correction emerged after an initial bullish push in the early session.
• Volatility expanded significantly during the overnight hours, with volume surging to 221,050 MXN.
• RSI dipped into oversold territory, suggesting potential for a near-term rebound.
• Key support appears near 18.85, with resistance forming around 19.05.

Overview and Context

Tether/Mexican Peso (USDTMXN) opened at 18.99 on 2025-10-11 at 12:00 ET-1 and closed at 18.94 on 2025-10-12 at 12:00 ET, with a 24-hour high of 19.15 and a low of 18.75. Total volume reached 221,050 MXN, while notional turnover exceeded the average, indicating increased activity. A notable bearish shift began after midday, followed by a volatile overnight phase.

Structure & Formations

The price action formed a bearish engulfing pattern around 19:00–21:00 ET-1, signaling a reversal in momentum. A doji near 18.80 confirmed indecision at that level. Key support appears to be forming at 18.85, while a cluster of highs between 19.05–19.15 suggests a resistance zone. A bullish recovery attempt was visible in the morning, but it failed to break above the 19.15 ceiling.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20 and 50-period moving averages crossed into bearish alignment after 19:00 ET-1, indicating a shift in sentiment. The 50-period MA crossed below the 20-period MA, forming a death cross. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA remains above the 100 and 200-period MAs, suggesting medium-term bullish bias but with short-term bearish momentum taking over.

MACD and RSI Signals

The MACD line crossed below the signal line around 19:00 ET-1, reinforcing the bearish turn. RSI dipped below 30 during the overnight session, signaling oversold conditions, which may offer a short-term entry point for buyers. However, the divergence between RSI and price during the morning rebound suggests caution.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands expanded overnight as volatility surged, with price dipping below the lower band at 18.75. This indicates a high volatility phase and potential for a bounce. The price then closed near the middle band, showing some consolidation after the sharp drop. A contraction is now forming, which may precede a breakout.

Volume and Turnover Dynamics

Volume spiked significantly after 19:00 ET-1, coinciding with the bearish breakout. The highest 15-minute volume was 39,723 MXN at 05:00 ET, while the largest notional turnover occurred at 03:30 ET with 32,155 MXN. A divergence appears between volume and price during the morning rebound, where rising price was accompanied by declining volume, casting doubt on the strength of the rally.

Fibonacci Retracements and Key Levels

On the 15-minute chart, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the 18.75 low to the 19.15 high aligns with 18.92, which was tested twice. A 38.2% retracement is at 18.97, which also showed resistance. On the daily chart, the 61.8% level from the recent high of 19.15 to the low of 18.75 is near 18.93, which was a key area of consolidation in the last 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could focus on using the bearish engulfing pattern and the oversold RSI as entry signals. If RSI dips below 30 and a bullish candle closes above 18.92, this could be considered a short-term bullish trigger. A stop-loss could be placed below 18.85, with a target at 19.02. This setup aligns with both the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and the 50-period MA, which could offer a high-probability trade entry.