Market Overview: Tether/Mexican Peso (USDTMXN) on 2025-12-29

Summary
• Price oscillated tightly between $17.94–$17.98, with resistance forming near $17.98.
• Volume and turnover surged in late ET hours, confirming strength near resistance.
• RSI indicated moderate momentum, while MACD showed bullish divergence in final hours.
• Bollinger Bands narrowed before a late expansion, suggesting increased volatility.

The Tether/Mexican Peso pair (USDTMXN) opened at $17.96 on 2025-12-28 at 12:00 ET and closed at $17.95 on 2025-12-29 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour range was $17.94–$17.98. Total volume was 448,508.0, and notional turnover reached $7,983,902.5.

Structure & Formations

Price action remained compressed within a narrow $0.04 range throughout most of the 24-hour period, suggesting strong liquidity and minimal directional bias. A key resistance level formed near $17.98, where several bullish reversal patterns—such as hammer and bullish engulfing—appeared in the final 90 minutes. A potential support zone emerged around $17.94–17.95, where price found repeated bids after minor corrections.

Moving Averages and Fibonacci Retracements

On the 5-minute chart, the 20- and 50-period moving averages remained closely aligned, reinforcing the lack of strong trend. On a daily basis, the price sat just above the 50-period MA, which was itself close to the 200-period MA, indicating consolidation.

Fibonacci retracements drawn from the $17.94 to $17.98 swing showed price consolidating near the 61.8% level, suggesting potential for a continuation or reversal depending on volume behavior.

Momentum Indicators

Relative Strength Index (RSI) fluctuated between 50–60 for most of the session, indicating balanced momentum. However, a late surge in price toward $17.98 brought RSI closer to overbought territory, suggesting short-term exhaustion. Meanwhile, the MACD crossed into positive territory in the final 90 minutes, with a bullish divergence forming as price made lower lows but the MACD made higher lows. This could indicate a potential short-term reversal.

Volatility and Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands constricted significantly in the early hours of 2025-12-29, signaling a potential breakout. Price eventually pushed toward the upper band in the late ET session, confirming the breakout. This expansion in volatility coincided with a sharp increase in volume, particularly between 14:00 and 15:45 ET, which supported the upward move.

Volume and Turnover

Volume increased dramatically in the final three hours, with over 127,000 units traded as price approached $17.98. Notional turnover mirrored this, reaching a high of $1.27 million in a single 45-minute candle, reinforcing the strength of the move. No significant divergence between price and volume was observed, suggesting genuine buying pressure.

Tether’s stability and the Mexican Peso’s performance suggest that market participants are likely waiting for broader FX or crypto macro signals before taking aggressive positions. Over the next 24 hours, a break above $17.98 could signal stronger bullish conviction, but traders should remain cautious of potential mean reversion in the absence of a clear breakout confirmation.