Market Overview for Tether/Mexican Peso (USDTMXN) - 2025-11-14

• Price action consolidates near 18.35–18.38 range with limited 24-hour range.
• Volume spiked mid-day as price approached 18.38, then retraced.
• RSI remains neutral; no overbought or oversold conditions observed.

Tether/Mexican Peso (USDTMXN) opened at 18.31 on 2025-11-13 at 12:00 ET, peaked at 18.55, and settled near 18.38 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-14. The pair traded between 18.3 and 18.55 over the last 24 hours. Total volume amounted to approximately 1,083,213.0 units, with a notional turnover of 19,758,349.0 MXN.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed consolidation between 18.35 and 18.38 in the latter half of the session, with a failed breakout attempt near 18.55 in the late afternoon. A bullish engulfing pattern briefly appeared at 18.35–18.37, but was followed by a bearish reversal. No definitive reversal patterns emerged in the final hour, though a tight range between 18.36 and 18.38 suggested indecision.

Moving Averages & MACD

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart remained relatively flat, reflecting the limited directional bias. MACD showed a narrow histogram with no clear trend, suggesting neutral momentum. RSI remained in the mid-40s to mid-50s range, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions.

Bollinger Bands & Volatility

Bollinger Bands expanded in the late afternoon as price spiked to 18.55, but quickly contracted again as the price returned to the mid-channel. The final hour of trading saw price hover near the upper band again, indicating a potential test of resistance. However, no decisive break above occurred.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged in the 18:45–19:00 ET timeframe as price approached 18.38, but then faded significantly. This suggests increased buying interest at higher levels but without follow-through. Notional turnover mirrored volume trends, with the largest spikes coinciding with key price levels.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute swing from 18.35 to 18.55 showed key levels at 18.46 (61.8%) and 18.41 (38.2%). Price failed to hold above 18.41 and retreated, suggesting limited buying interest at these levels.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the behavior of USDTMXN and the technical indicators discussed, a meaningful backtest could focus on resistance-level breaks using Bollinger Bands or Fibonacci levels as triggers. For example, a strategy that enters a short position when price closes below the 61.8% Fibonacci level or retests the upper Bollinger Band could be evaluated. Testing this hypothesis would require defining the exact trigger rules and running the strategy from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-14.