Market Overview for Tether/Mexican Peso (USDTMXN) - 2025-10-08

• • •
• Price action drifted lower in a narrow range, closing near the 24-hour low.
• Bullish momentum faded with RSI below 50, indicating potential bearish bias.
• Low volatility observed, with Bollinger Bands compressed and price near the lower band.
• Volume and turnover remained subdued, with no clear divergence or confirmation patterns.

The Tether/Mexican Peso (USDTMXN) pair opened at 18.4 on October 7, 2025 at 16:00 ET and closed at 18.44 at 04:00 ET on October 8. The price reached a high of 18.48 and a low of 18.38 within the 24-hour window. Total volume amounted to 690,928 units, while notional turnover (amount) stood at 9,156 MXN.

In the past 24 hours, the pair traded in a tight range with limited directional bias. A brief attempt to break above 18.45 was met with selling pressure, leading to a retest of the 18.41–18.43 support cluster. The candlestick pattern near 18.44–18.45 resembles a bearish consolidation pattern, with a potential for a bearish breakdown if the 18.41 level is violated.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels appear to be forming around 18.41 and 18.38, while resistance is clustered near 18.44–18.45 and 18.48. A bearish engulfing pattern is visible during the early morning hours, suggesting a potential short-term reversal. Additionally, a doji formed near 18.45, indicating indecision among market participants.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are closely aligned, reinforcing the consolidation phase. The 50-period MA remains slightly above the 20-period, indicating mild bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is above the 100- and 200-period MAs, but the 50-period has not yet crossed the 100-period, suggesting a neutral to bearish bias in the longer term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram has remained mostly below zero, with a narrow convergence, confirming the lack of momentum. The RSI has moved below 50 and is hovering near the oversold threshold, suggesting that the price may find a near-term floor around 18.38–18.40. However, the RSI has not yet triggered a strong oversold signal.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands are compressed, indicating low volatility. The price has spent much of the 24-hour period near the lower band, reinforcing the bearish tilt. A breakout above the upper band would require a stronger move past 18.48, while a breakdown below the lower band could target 18.35–18.37.

Volume & Turnover

Volume and turnover have remained relatively low, with no significant spikes observed. The price has not diverged from volume, suggesting no strong conviction on either side. A breakout attempt would ideally require a surge in volume to confirm the move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute swing from 18.48 to 18.38, the 61.8% retracement level is at 18.43 and appears to have acted as a minor resistance. On a daily basis, the 38.2% retracement sits at 18.46, which the price briefly tested but failed to hold.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy involves entering short positions when the price breaks below the 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart, confirmed by a bearish divergence in RSI and a candlestick pattern such as a bearish engulfing or a doji. Stops are placed above the upper Bollinger Band, with take-profit targets aligned to the 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci levels of the recent swing. This strategy may work best in a consolidative environment like the one observed in the last 24 hours.