Market Overview for Tether/Hryvnia (USDTUAH): Volatility and Key Reversals

• Price dropped sharply from 42.51 to 42.24 in 5 hours, showing high volatility and bearish momentum.
• Volume spiked during the 19:15–19:30 ET window, coinciding with a key intraday high and pullback.
• RSI and MACD signaled bearish divergence and overbought levels were quickly reversed to oversold.
• Bollinger Bands contracted briefly at 22:00 ET, followed by a significant price break below the lower band.
• A 61.8% Fibonacci level at 42.29 appears to be a key support; price bounced from this level overnight.

The Tether/Hryvnia pair (USDTUAH) opened at 42.42 on October 2, 2025 (12:00 ET − 1), reached a high of 42.51 and a low of 42.24 before closing at 42.30 on October 3, 2025 (12:00 ET). Total volume over the 24-hour period was 59,660.0 Hryvnia, with a notional turnover of approximately 2,514,000 Hryvnia. The price displayed a sharp correction, with a significant bearish trend developing from 19:15–21:30 ET.

Structure & Formations

A key support level appears to form around 42.29, where multiple candlesticks found a floor, suggesting short-term stabilization. A morning low of 42.24 was briefly tested but failed to break below, indicating resilience at this level. A long bearish candle at 20:30 ET (from 42.38 to 42.31) signaled strong selling pressure, while a bullish reversal candle at 23:30 ET (from 42.27 to 42.28) hinted at potential support strength. A doji at 00:15 ET suggests indecision and potential exhaustion in the bearish move.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed below the 50-period MA, reinforcing a bearish bias. On the daily timeframe, the 50- and 200-period MAs were not available due to insufficient daily data, but the 50-period MA on the 15-minute chart sat at 42.43, suggesting the recent drop remains bearish and below key moving average levels.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned negative early in the sharp sell-off and maintained bearish momentum for most of the session. RSI plunged below 30 during the 21:00–22:00 ET period, indicating oversold conditions, but failed to trigger a strong rebound. A bearish divergence between RSI and price was observed during the 20:30–21:30 ET window, suggesting potential for further downward movement unless a reversal pattern confirms otherwise.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a narrow contraction at 22:00–23:00 ET, followed by a sharp move below the lower band during the 23:00–01:00 ET period. This suggests increased volatility and a strong bearish move. Price has remained below the lower band for most of the overnight session, indicating a high degree of bearish momentum.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at 19:15–19:30 ET as the price reached a high of 42.51 and then dropped. This divergence between volume and price suggests potential exhaustion of the bullish move. Overnight, volume remained moderate, with a noticeable decrease in turnover as the price consolidated around 42.29. No strong divergence was observed after 01:00 ET.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 42.43–42.51 swing on the 15-minute chart, the 61.8% level is at 42.30, which aligns closely with the price’s current consolidation zone. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement level would need broader historical data to define, but intraday retracements highlight key areas of potential reversal, especially near 42.29 and 42.30.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed bearish divergence in RSI, the strong volume spike during the 19:15–19:30 ET high, and the Fibonacci support at 42.29, a potential backtesting strategy could involve entering a short position after the price breaks below the 42.29 level with confirmation from a bearish engulfing candle and RSI below 30. Stop-loss could be placed just above the 42.31 resistance, while the initial take-profit might target the 42.24 level. This strategy would leverage both price action and momentum indicators to capitalize on the recent bearish trend.

Forward-Looking View and Risk Caveat

The USDTUAH pair appears to be consolidating near the 42.29 support level with bearish momentum intact. A sustained move below 42.24 could trigger further downward pressure, while a bounce above 42.30 might hint at a potential reversal or consolidation phase. Investors should remain cautious of potential macroeconomic news affecting the Hryvnia and monitor volume for signs of reaccumulation or exhaustion.