Market Overview for Tether/Hryvnia (USDTUAH) – October 7, 2025

• USDTUAH traded with a strong bearish bias, dropping from 42.14 to 41.63 on heightened volume.
• A sharp retracement occurred after a 61.8% Fibonacci level was tested around 41.55, suggesting short-term support.
• Bollinger Bands contracted overnight, followed by an explosive break lower, signaling increased volatility.
• RSI hit oversold levels around 25-30, hinting at potential near-term buying interest.
• Volume surged during the bearish breakdown, confirming the strength of the downward move.

Tether/Hryvnia (USDTUAH) opened at 42.06 on October 6, 2025, at 12:00 ET–1, hit a high of 42.16, and closed at 41.63 by 12:00 ET on October 7. The 24-hour trading session recorded a total volume of 58,380 Hryvnia and a notional turnover of $2,444,583, showing heightened activity during the sharp downward move.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick pattern displayed a strong bearish bias, with a large-bodied candle forming between 42.14 and 41.55. A notable bearish engulfing pattern emerged during the overnight hours, confirming a key reversal from 42.14 to 41.63. A doji formed near 41.55, indicating indecision, followed by a continuation of the downtrend. Support appears to hold at 41.53, where a consolidation phase began.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20 and 50-period moving averages both crossed below the price action, confirming a bearish trend. The 50-period MA sat at 41.98, and the 20-period MA at 42.02, both acting as overhead resistance during the consolidation phase. Daily moving averages (50/100/200) showed a more neutral bias, with the 100-period line at 42.10 and the 200-period line at 42.25, suggesting further downside could test these levels.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a bearish crossover during the overnight sell-off, with the line dropping below the signal line and remaining negative into the morning. The RSI reached an oversold level around 28 early in the morning, offering potential near-term buying interest. However, divergence between price and RSI during the afternoon suggests caution, as the momentum remains bearish despite the oversold reading.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands tightened overnight before a sharp breakdown occurred. The price broke below the lower band at 41.55, confirming an expansion phase and indicating increased volatility. The narrow consolidation before the break may signal a period of low conviction before the market made a decisive move lower.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the overnight bearish move, particularly between 04:45 and 05:00 ET, where a massive 8,670 Hryvnia of volume was recorded with a drop from 42.10 to 41.55. This confirms the strength of the bearish move. Turnover also aligned with this volume, with a peak of $355,380 during the same period. Later in the day, volume normalized as the pair moved sideways in the 41.63–41.71 range.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels from the key swing high at 42.14 to the swing low at 41.55 showed the 61.8% level at 41.55 being tested early in the morning. The price briefly bounced off this level and moved into consolidation. The 38.2% level at 41.77 held firm during the afternoon as buying interest emerged. A breakdown below 41.55 could now target the next Fibonacci level at 41.45.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed structure and volume confluence, a backtest strategy could be constructed using a short-entry rule on a bearish engulfing pattern with volume confirmation above 1,000 Hryvnia. Stops could be placed above the 42.10–42.14 resistance zone, and targets could align with the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 41.55 and beyond. The RSI showing oversold levels could signal a potential retest of these levels, offering a dynamic exit or reversal setup. This approach could be tested across multiple timeframes, particularly 15-minute and hourly, to refine entry timing and risk management.